As we get more details on the Republicans, some - most notably Ed Morrisey of Captain's Quarters and Jim Geraghty of The Campaign Spot - believe McCain's performance wasn't as bad as first seemed, and that it might be too soon to write off his campaign.

For example, while McCain's 2nd Q totals were down nearly $2 million from his 1st quarter (which earned him sixth place of the six major contenders in both parties), Romney's were down by almost $8 million, causing Mitt to write his campaign a check of nearly that much to keep going, having spent some $32 million in the first six months of 2007. Also, McCain only trailed Giuliani by about $4 million in primary money for the quarter (although he lags in total, and in cash on hand). And as bad as the report might have been for McCain, he did improve his overall position in the money race by finishing fifth overall, relegating the struggling-but-with-great-hair Edwards campaign to last of the "majors."

McCain's Bloggermeister, Patrick Hynes, also points out that Reagan had similar troubles in late 1979. I would add that Reagan's problems were largely caused by concerns about his age at the time. I did note that Kerry also suffered late-2003 money trouble sufficient for him to ask Teresa Hines-Kerry-Hines for permission to borrow on the "family" home, and he ended up winning.

All that's true. But still, McCain is the campaign undergoing its second "restructuring" in only three months. 50 staffers are being laid off outright, while others are being asked to accept pay cuts or work for nothing. That's worthy of note, and not a good sign for a campaign.

But the bottom line is that McCain isn't losing because he can't raise the money. He's losing because he has insisted on being "McCain the Maverick," a role created rather late in his career, and seemingly delights in the media attention he wins by disparaging Republican base voters and conservative leaders and groups.

This isn't 2000. The Democrats have a real race of their own this time. That means fewer Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents will cross over to vote for McCain in the states which permit it. The winner of this nomination may not have to be the favorite of the base, but he will be acceptable to the base. John McCain is rightfully respected for his service to our country, but his behavior in the Senate made him unacceptable to the Republican base long before the McCain-Kennedy Immigration Reform bill became a major issue.