The old joke about opera is that it "isn't over until the fat lady sings." She seems to be warming up in the contest for the Democratic nomination, as no one seems to be able to catch Senator Hillary Clinton, according to Gallup:
Clinton leads the pack of Democratic hopefuls on both ballot measures, pulling in 37% support with Gore in the race and 42% with him factored out. Obama places second by a narrow margin with Gore in the race and a more comfortable margin when Gore's support is re-allocated. Gore draws 16%, essentially tying him for third with Edwards at 13% (Edwards' support is 16% without Gore.) No other candidate receives more than 4% support.
Read the full report at the above link. Obama and Edwards seem to have hit ceilings on their support, and even the potential entry of former Vice President Al Gore doesn't change the race appreciably. Clinton retains a 16-point lead over Obama with or without Gore on the ballot.
Gore's support, when his name is added, comes roughly equally from Clinton and Obama, while he peels off a bit from Edwards and Richardson, too. Still, he only barely beats Edwards for third place. These sorts of numbers will likely not entice him to jump in at this late stage, given the logistical problems of assembling an organization with most of the experienced Democratic activists already committed to other candidates.
Edwards is stuck in the mud. It should be noted he raised less money in the 2nd quarter than John McCain, and the political obiturarists have been busy preparing for the demise of the Arizona Senator's campaign. My bet is Edwards is out before McCain.
Obama also appears to have topped out. Despite the enthusiasm of his supporters and the huge amounts of money he has raised, his lack of experience and substance just doesn't seem able to attract more than the roughly 25% of likely Democratic voters who have backed him since he announced his candidacy.
Of course, as American folk philosopher Yogi Berra cautioned, "It ain't over 'til it's over," but the curtain will come down soon on Hillary's challengers unless one of them finds a way to shake up the race soon.
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2008 Presidential Race, Democrats, Polls, Primaries
Tags: Democrat, poll, presidential campaign
Comments (7)
We're still a long way off ... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Larkin | July 12, 2007 3:05 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
We're still a long way off from Iowa and New Hampshire. A lot can happen and the debates will be important especially for Obama.
I don't think these polls can accurately capture Gore's support since he is still undeclared. He could certainly shake things up.
1. Posted by Larkin | July 12, 2007 3:05 PM |
Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on July 12, 2007 15:05
2. Posted by Jim Addison | July 12, 2007 4:51 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Obama has been in debates already, and hasn't impressed anyone.
Gore could indeed shake up the race, BUT only if Edwards or Obama or both get out. Hillary has been flirting with the 40% level which usually spells inevitability in a campaign with three or more candidates, but if it became a two-candidate race between her and Gore, all bets would be off.
That's rather far-fetched, though. Obama has too much money to get out any time soon, and Edwards has to know this is his last chance at the big prize (although if the money dries up, he won't be able to hang in there for long).
Without some of the cadre of staffers, consultants, fundraisers, and pollsters now tied up with other candidates, it is difficult to imagine a viable candidacy arising from nowhere, even with Gore's name recognition. There is no groundswell for him to compare with Thompson on the GOP side, for example.
2. Posted by Jim Addison | July 12, 2007 4:51 PM |
Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on July 12, 2007 16:51
3. Posted by Larkin | July 12, 2007 5:44 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Obama has been in debates already, and hasn't impressed anyone.
I think Obama's been playing it safe. I don't think he excels in the debate forum as much as he does when he's on the stump. But he's got time to do something about that.
Edwards is also still leading in Iowa. He can't be counted out for that reason. If he starts to fade in Iowa he's in real trouble.
There may not be a groundswell for Gore as there is for Thompson but he is generally well-liked by the Democratic base. He doesn't have the "Iraq" problem like Hillary. He also won the nomination in 2000 so I don't think you can count him out.
Basically, I think the Democratic race is a muddle at this point.
3. Posted by Larkin | July 12, 2007 5:44 PM |
Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on July 12, 2007 17:44
4. Posted by Jim Addison | July 12, 2007 10:40 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
I agree that Obama is better on the stump. He seems stiff and uncomfortable in the formal debates - at least compared to his mannerisms in other situations.
I seriously doubt he can improve that performance very much, though. He and Edwards simply don't have the policy knowledge and experience of Hillary, Biden, Richardson, and Dodd. They're both very intelligent men, but you can't assimilate the sort of acumen acquired from working on issues for years.
No doubt Gore remains popular among the base, but if all the campaign staff and consultants and fundraisers and volunteers are signed up with someone else, what practical chance does he have? Campaigns - successful ones, at least - don't run themselves.
4. Posted by Jim Addison | July 12, 2007 10:40 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on July 12, 2007 22:40
5. Posted by Lee Ward | July 13, 2007 12:23 AM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
"Obama and Edwards seem to have hit ceilings on their support, and even the potential entry of former Vice President Al Gore doesn't change the race appreciably."
Only when you factor in Gore's numbers now, while he's not declared.
Have him declare, and the Democratic race is WFO.
5. Posted by Lee Ward | July 13, 2007 12:23 AM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on July 13, 2007 00:23
6. Posted by Jim Addison | July 13, 2007 1:26 AM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Lee, you hopeless romantic you!
Sure, Al Gore, who couldn't even win as the Veep for a popular President with a high approval rating and a unified party behind him can just jump into the pool buck naked and be the life of the party - fighting the Clinton Machine and the Obama Phenomenon, with no swimsuit, no consultants, no experienced staff, no pollsters, no fundraisers, no volunteers . . . just a dream and a smile.
That's what we love about you, man: you're completely insane.
6. Posted by Jim Addison | July 13, 2007 1:26 AM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on July 13, 2007 01:26
7. Posted by Glenn Koons | July 13, 2007 1:48 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Look, Hil is pulling away not fading or even thinking lossing. She and Edwards got caught planning to dump all the other Dems running for Prez in the next debate. She is a killer tomatoe who runs over people. All this stuff in Time Mag. about how the liberals now have found God to be softer winning pols is nonsense. And certainly for the old Methodist Hil. She is a killer and BO is toast though he could be her choice for VP. Frankly, though I cannot stand her, her best choice would be Richardson as VP. In Ohio today, she supposedly has a 1% lead on Rudy. Only Hil has any chance to steal a Red or Purple state. BO cannot do that.
7. Posted by Glenn Koons | July 13, 2007 1:48 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on July 13, 2007 13:48