I'm not generally a fan of Zogby polls since he hashed up his methodology some years ago. However, when his results come out close to every other major poll's, either they are close to accurate or everyone is wrong. Here's his latest results:
The survey shows New York Sen. Hillary Clinton with a 37% to 25% lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is a distant third at 12%, while New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson leads the also-rans with 4%. Clinton's edge over Obama has shrunk slightly since late May - she has lost two points and Obama has gained 1% since that last Zogby poll of the race.
Eighteen percent of Democrats remain undecided, the same as in late May.
Read the whole report at the above link (including his results for the GOP, which do not mirror other polls').
Every poll shows the same thing since early this year: Hillary in the mid-to-upper 30s, Obama in the mid-20s, Edwards in the 10-16% range, and Gore - where included - in the 15-18% range. It is a very stable race. No candidate has suffered a major gaffe, but no one has made a breakout move, either.
The longer this keeps up, the better for Hillary Clinton. Her candidacy begins to acquire the look of inevitability which so often proves, in politics, to be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Donors and uncommitted activists, officials, and voters tend to want to be on the winning team (and in particular not to make the winner mad at them by persisting in supporting one of the losers too long).
The only real chance of a shake-up in the race, barring the sort of major mistake which these cautious candidates are carefully avoiding, would be the late entry of Al Gore. Even Gore couldn't make much of a splash unless one or more of the trailing candidates withdrew, though: Obama, Edwards, and the rest are tying up staffers, consultants, managers, volunteers, and donors who would be necessary to mount an effective challenge.
Obama is running just strong enough to demonstrate his appeal, setting himself up for possible success in 2012 (or even 2016 if Hillary wins next year; he's a young man). Edwards is on his last-chance run, so is unlikely to drop out unless the money dries up. Richardson is running well enough to make him a possible Vice Presidential nominee, but not so well as to threaten to enter the first tier of candidates.
Hillary was clearly worried about Obama earlier, but the timely entrance of Bill Clinton into her campaigning stabilized her lead.
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2008 Presidential Race, Democrats, Polls
Tags: Democrat, poll, presidential campaign, primaries
Comments (1)
I am glad to see that evolv... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Stephen Fox | July 18, 2007 9:30 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I am glad to see that evolved and astute websites like yours are warming to the obvious facts of Bill Richardson's ascending campaign, even though you are very reasonably somewhat skeptical about the precise statistics.....
Richardson is my governor, and I have known him personally for 30 years. What Richardson has achieved vis-a-vis the New Mexico Legislature is remarkable, but I won't recite the accomplishments. I want to see him elected President; I am in no way connected officially to his campaign.
The so called "top-tier" candidates together, all 3 of them, have a collective resume still lesser in quality to Bill Richardson's!(Incidentally, Pollster.com determined very recently that Richardson henceforth shall be considered in the "top-tier," based on his being the only candidate who has substantially risen in Iowa!)
I am certain that Richardson's real genius and his strongest suit is in international affairs, and that will be vital (and I don't mean as just a future US Secretary of State!), if we are going to even attempt to rebuild the shattered US image internationally, after six years of Halliburton-driven corporate kleptocracy. His debate skills have not been as honed and polished as the 3 lawyers in so-called "top tier," but that is fixable. His biography is great (Between Worlds: the Making of an American Life), and the new book on Energy Policy will be just as good.
Here is what I consider the bottom line: you don't have to be a Marxian or Hegelian or a Ph.D Economist to comprehend that our domestic economy is suffering and going to get worse resulting from the on-going international implications of the screwed up foreign policy of this administration, so thoroughly based on corporate needs and demands; don't expect ANY improvements in the last two years of Bush's tenure, especially in the trickle down economic realms which would improve the lives of the vast lot of individual American consumers.
Richardson has repeatedly made it clear that Congress should deauthorize the Iraq War, and that he personally would end it the first day of his Presidency: his very recent TV ads have made this really clear.
["Our troops have done everything we've asked and I don't want to see any more die,"]
My prediction: for lots of really good reasons, Richardson is going to win in Nevada, and he is going to do very very well in Iowa, New Hampshire, Tennessee, and California, I think winning in at least two of those states.
May I suggest that you and your readers directly communicate to David Contarino and Amanda Cooper, his Campaign Manager, and Deputy CM, or to Richardson directly through the email function on his NM governor website? These people are very open to new ideas, questions, strategies, insights, etc., and I encourage anyone reading to take the time to contact them by phone or by email, even if you have just one question on a policy matter, or want to tell Bill Richardson what YOU think.
If you wish, please google the title of my most recent major article, RESOLVING THE WORSENING CRISIS AT THE FDA, published at many websites in many nations.
Truly,
Stephen Fox
New Millennium Fine Art,
217 W. Water St.,
Santa Fe, New Mexico 87501
505 983-2002
1. Posted by Stephen Fox | July 18, 2007 9:30 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on July 18, 2007 21:30