With multiple-candidate contests in both parties, it is only a matter of time before the realities of raising money and failure to gain traction take hold and winnow the field a bit. National Journal's John Mercurio takes a shot here.
Read his entire analysis at the link above. To summarize, he sees Hunter and Tommy Thompson joining Gilmore in leaving the race soon on the Republican side, as well as Biden for the Democrats. Dodd he expects to get out after NH barring a surprisingly strong showing there, and Edwards and McCain to bow out in early February.
Mercurio sees Kucinich, Tancredo, and Paul as missionary candidates who aren't really in to win anyway, and believes they will stay in until the conventions.
He suspects the GOP side will boil down to Giuliani and Romney, and possibly Thompson (who he refuses to evaluate because he isn't officially in yet), while the Democrats will see a fight to the finish between Hillary and Obama after Richardson leaves in time to remain a viable Veep choice.
All in all, not outlandish - but also rather close to the conventional wisdom Interesting reasoning behind the predictions, though.
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2008 Presidential Race, Commentary, Primaries
Tags: Democrat, presidential campaign, Republicans
