Since early 2003, John Edwards has spent more time in Iowa than any other nonresident politician. He built a following and an organization there which is enviable. The paid staff and volunteers are dedicated and loyal - and enabled him to finish a close second in 2004 when predicted to come in a poor fourth. He has nurtured and built that organization since then, and still leads in polls of likely Democratic caucus-goers for this coming January, but that lead isn't going unchallenged any longer. Leslie Wayne has the story for The New York Times:

For Mr. Edwards, Iowa is his field of dreams. He built his campaign strategy on the belief that a victory in the Iowa caucuses next January would propel him to front-runner status and position him well for New Hampshire and the crush of Feb. 5 primaries. Statewide polls that often placed him at the top of the pack here suggested that his hard work in Iowa had paid off.

But Mr. Edwards is facing new challenges and could be in danger of being toppled from his front-runner perch here as Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama have been stepping up their Iowa campaigns in recent weeks.

Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama are outspending him, bringing in sophisticated campaign staffs, lining up crucial endorsements and drawing crowds that have numbered in the thousands. Mrs. Clinton generated excitement when she brought in her husband, former President Bill Clinton, to campaign at her side. Mr. Obama has also attracted large crowds, especially on college campuses and among young voters.

Read the whole article at the above link. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama both have far more money to spend, so they could afford to cede the early lead to Edwards in Iowa. At least part of his startling performance in 2004 was based on factors he cannot count on again: he was a "fresh face" in Presidential politics then, who many Democrats thought might be able to win in the fall, the early frontrunners in the state (Gephardt and Dean) engaged in Mutually Assured Destruction through negative advertising, and doubts remained about John Kerry.

Edwards is no longer the romantic New Kid on the Block - Obama took that title away for this cycle - nor are his opponents so lackluster as in 2004. Iowa will be make-or-break for him in 2008, given his poor standing in polls of New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida. Without a win in Iowa to give his campaign momentum, he won't be able to raise the money needed to win enough delegates in the multi-state February 5th primaries to stay competitive.

Will Edwards be able to fight on without winning Iowa first? Only his hairdresser knows for sure . . .