Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney's lead in Iowa is large and steady. The Research 2000 poll released yesterday finds him with 25% support, followed by Thompson with 14%, Giuliani has 13%, and McCain wins 10%.
That's not an aberration by any stretch of imagination. Real Clear Politics has the average of the last four major polls of the state, taken over the last six weeks: they show Romney at 24.5%, Thompson earns 15.5%, Giuliani gets 15.0%, while McCain trails with 9.8%. Romney's support in the four polls registers at 23, 23, 25, 25 - with the 25s in the last two - so it seems as accurate as polls can be.
Compare the superficially similar situation on the Democratic side, where Edwards - who also runs fourth nationally if Gore is included in a poll - leads in Iowa. Edwards has been building his Iowa organization since 2003 at least. Hillary and Obama have invested in the state, but haven't concentrated on it in the way they will as the caucuses approach, and still Edwards can only manage a small lead in half the polls. The others show Clinton leading, with Obama not terribly far behind. Not good for Edwards.
The other Republican contenders, though, have all but abandoned the state to Romney. They ducked out of the Ames Straw Poll when it became apparent Romney was positioned to win it. While they claim to be fighting for the caucuses, their ardor for cornfields has cooled considerably.
Can a fourth-place (nationally) candidate get that big a bounce from Iowa? It has only happened once, with Jimmy Carter in 1976. He didn't even win - "Uncommitted" came in first - but his second place was enough of a surprise to "put him on the map" and set him up to win New Hampshire, after which he cruised to the nomination.
There have been 13 contested caucuses (counting both parties) since 1972; the winner won his party's nomination in seven of those years.
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Filed under:
2008 Presidential Race, Polls, Primaries, Romney
Tags: Iowa, poll, presidential campaign, Republicans, Romney
Comments (1)
Frankly, I am tired of such... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Glenn Koons | July 28, 2007 2:49 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Frankly, I am tired of such drivel. So what that Mitt wins Iowa? He might win NH too. That is a total of 7 electoral votes. He still nationally ranks somewhere between 7-9% of Pub popularity. I frankly do not want a few hundred thousands Iowans deciding my candidate. The MSM is the one who drives this nonsense. If on Super Tues, he wins, I will support him. Bet he doesn't!
1. Posted by Glenn Koons | July 28, 2007 2:49 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on July 28, 2007 14:49