Hillary Clinton continues her march to the Democratic nomination as a new USA Today/Gallup Poll shows:
New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has significantly widened her lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination in the wake of a dispute over handling foreign policy, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds.The survey, taken Friday through Sunday, puts Clinton at 48% -- up 8 percentage points from three weeks ago -- and Obama at 26%, down 2 points. Among Democrats and independents who "lean" Democratic, former North Carolina senator John Edwards is at 12%.
Read the entire article at the link above. After enjoying a double-digit lead for months, Hillary is pulling away now. Obama's recent missteps on foreign policy (willingness to summit with rogue leaders without preconditions, taking nukes "off the table" in dealing with terrorists, and threatening to unilaterally invade Pakistan) have underscored his inexperience, while Edwards is stuck at virtually the same level of support he has attracted all year. Clinton's lead is now a healthy 22 points.
The old political rule of thumb in a multi-candidate nomination contest is that a frontrunner becomes the prohibitive favorite at about 40% support. The reason for this is simple arithmetic: suppose the second-place contender is at 30% versus 40% for the leader. This means that the runner-up needs to win over the remainder of the voters by a 2-1 margin just to tie. That's an almost insurmountable hurdle because if a candidate could really attract that sort of support he wouldn't be in second place.
Hillary is showing very steady strength, too. Of the 11 latest polls reported by Real Clear Politics, she scores 40% or more in seven of them - and 39% in the other four! Given the apparent inability of any of her current rivals to make a dent in that, about the only way this race gets shaken up would be a late entry by Al Gore.
Even that prospect grows less likely every day, given the dramatically truncated primary schedule. It's later than you think . . .
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2008 Presidential Race, Democrats, Hillary, Polls, Primaries
Tags: Democrat, Hillary Clinton, poll, presidential campaign
Comments (5)
Um.Look at the Iow... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Paul | August 7, 2007 7:20 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Um.
Look at the Iowa and New Hampshire polls.
1. Posted by Paul | August 7, 2007 7:20 PM |
Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on August 7, 2007 19:20
2. Posted by Jim Addison | August 7, 2007 10:52 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Um.
Check out InTrade.
;-)
2. Posted by Jim Addison | August 7, 2007 10:52 PM |
Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on August 7, 2007 22:52
3. Posted by Falze | August 8, 2007 12:22 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Here's a question, something I don't have the time to follow up on myself...
Who exactly is out there, for both sides or even 3rd parties, that could be significant 'late' entries (they're only late by modern day standards)?
Dems got Gore, I'd say the odds of him coming in are under 50%
I's got maybe Bloomberg, although it doesn't really matter what the odds are, I don't think he has any appeal to anybody, certainly not the far left or the 2nd amendment supporting right.
Repub's got Thompson, probably about 90% likely to run, and Newt probably closer to 30%.
At least that's my take. Any other whispers on the wind? Everyone talks about the weak Republican field, but the Dems can't find anybody to challenge a women that more than half the country tells pollsters they won't vote for in any circumstance.
Anybody out there that could roar onto stage and wipe out this pitiful field? How about a Bill Parcells and Jack Kemp "NFL for USA" ticket?
3. Posted by Falze | August 8, 2007 12:22 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on August 8, 2007 12:22
4. Posted by Captain-Sky | August 8, 2007 1:57 PM | Score: -1 (1 votes cast)
Those Polls You Just Mention Are 8 Days Behind Mr Obama's Latest Shown Inexperience Remarks He Made Conserning Pakistan.That Intrade Is Full Of What You Want It To Be.Ya'lls Boy Is A Disaster Waiting To Happen.You Know It Amaze's Me How Many Of You Listen To Obama Make Mistake After Mistake And You Still Defends His Stupidty,His #'s Actually Scare Me.Now Go And Find Another Meaningless Poll To Suit Your Satisfaction
4. Posted by Captain-Sky | August 8, 2007 1:57 PM |
Score: -1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on August 8, 2007 13:57
5. Posted by Glenn Koons | August 8, 2007 2:18 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
The polls will still show Rudy and Hil leading for a few more weeks until we finally have those two boring Iowa and NH ploys. To think that the media overblows these two states with less than 8 electoral votes is just amazing. The polls that count are in the big states and there Hil and Rudy still lead. As to Fred, ho hum. I would love to see him in and see if he has any staying power, any fire, any real policies that sound like those all, all Republicans could vote for. Frankly, I am tired of his coyness. And Newt's too.
5. Posted by Glenn Koons | August 8, 2007 2:18 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on August 8, 2007 14:18