As the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2007 approaches, attention moves to the candidates' fundraising totals. Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic Monthly has predictions.
He sees Hillary Clinton leading with $20-$25 million raised, followed by Barack Obama with perhaps as much as $20 million. John Edwards has been experiencing continued difficulties, and is expected to come in at no more than $5 million and may be surpassed by Bill Richardson, with others far behind. Read his full comments at the link above.
This likely reflects the strong and steady 20-point lead Clinton enjoys in polling, which reinforces the view of her "inevitability" - a signal to donors that if they want to get on the bandwagon, now is the time. Obama's lower numbers will still be quite significant, but if Clinton is finally outpacing him in money as well as support, it bodes no good for his campaign.
If Richardson does beat Edwards, the former North Carolina Senator will find himself up against a wall. He has staked his campaign on Iowa, where he has the most well-established organization and had been holding a lead in polls. Real Clear Politics' average of Iowa Democratic polls shows Clinton in the lead now with 26.2% support, followed by Edwards at 23.6% and Obama with 21.0%. Perhaps more significantly, the Intrade market strongly favors Hillary to take Iowa, with contracts for her leading the pack at $50.00 (the winner pays $100, losers pay nothing). There is no reason to suppose Edwards would quit before the caucuses, but anything but a win will probably force him out.
Richardson trails the leaders by far, but the real news for him is that he is moving up, apparently gaining momentum as everyone else except Clinton seems to be losing steam. His only hope for the nomination - and Obama and Edwards' best chance, too - remains a major stumble or scandal by the Clinton campaign (not an entirely fantastic prospect, given her history). Other than that, he is solidifying his position as her best choice for Vice President.
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Filed under:
2008 Presidential Race, Campaign Contributions, Democrats, Primaries
Tags: analysis, campaign contributions, Democrat, presidential campaign, primaries
Comments (1)
mantis liked Richardson mon... (Below threshold)1. Posted by kim | September 22, 2007 7:08 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
mantis liked Richardson months ago. I maintain he's the only electable Democrat, maybe Biden, maybe Lieberman, who, I believe, remains Kingmaker. He could be Veep in either party, and may.
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1. Posted by kim | September 22, 2007 7:08 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on September 22, 2007 19:08