Jim Geraghty at NRO's The Campaign Spot looks at the threats of "social conservatives" to form a third party if the Republican nominee fails to appeal to them (meaning: is Rudy Giuliani). He speaks to a source who doubts the feasibility:
He noted that James Dobson, in a New York Times op-ed, had noted that at the meeting of pro-life leaders in Utah last week, there was a consensus about refusing to support a pro-choice candidate like Rudy Giuliani, but there was not a consensus about forming a third party."How far is Dobson going to get without Jonathan Falwell [Jerry Falwell's son], or Pat Robertson, or a good chunk of these other leaders in the movement? This only works if you have everyone on board, and there just isn't a consensus." The strategist didn't see a consensus emerging as the race progresses, either.
Read the full post at the link above. Third party talk is cheap; actually getting on the ballot in enough states to matter is difficult and expensive. It does happen from time to time, of course, but almost always arises out of a narrow set of issues which do not survive beyond one or two elections. Thurmond's Dixiecrats in 1948, Wallace's American Party in 1968, and Perot's Reform Party in 1992 and 1996 come to mind. Of the marginal parties, only the Libertarians have managed to maintain an organization sufficient to win ballot access in most states.
The reason is that third parties are like fifth wheels in our system. The nature of our government dictates parties will always boil down to a majority and an opposition. Successful third parties build from the ground up in the states until they are strong enough to supplant one of the existing two major parties. The last to accomplish this was the Republicans in the mid-19th Century.
But the most intriguing reason given that a third party effort is subject to preemption is the possibility of Giuliani choosing a running mate with impeccable pro-life credentials, like former Senator Rick Santorum, or former Governor Mike Huckabee:
The strategist mentioned a conversation with a figure he described as 'one of the largest Catholic pro-life donors in the country'. "He said, 'I can't support Rudy, and I won't vote for him.' I asked him, 'What if he picks Rick Santorum as his running mate?' Then he said, 'well, that's a different story!'""If a Rick Santorum or a Mike Huckabee goes to James Dobson and says, 'look, before I accepted the offer to be his running mate, I looked this man in the eye. I sized him up, and I know he'll be a help to us. He gets us. And if you sink him, you sink me,' then how can he go on?"
Makes a lot of sense to me. Giuliani doesn't need help to get to the middle, he does that on his own. He needs to button up and energize the base, and a choice like Rick Santorum, the Senator whose loss in 2006 was most deeply mourned by conservatives, could do just that.



Comments (19)
Ich bin ein Verdienstmoegli... (Below threshold)1. Posted by kim | October 6, 2007 11:26 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Ich bin ein Verdienstmoeglichkeiter.
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1. Posted by kim | October 6, 2007 11:26 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 6, 2007 11:26
2. Posted by bryanD | October 6, 2007 12:09 PM | Score: -2 (2 votes cast)
"Could Santorum as VP be Rudy's answer?-ja"
Let's see: Santorum can't carry his home state,
Giuliani won't carry his home state,
(-)+(-)=(+).
Sure. *eye roll*
2. Posted by bryanD | October 6, 2007 12:09 PM |
Score: -2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on October 6, 2007 12:09
3. Posted by kim | October 6, 2007 12:34 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
I had a similar thought, bD, but you are neglecting completely the idea that the ticket is proposed to win nationally, not locally. But I like just cute, too, so carry-on.
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3. Posted by kim | October 6, 2007 12:34 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on October 6, 2007 12:34
4. Posted by harris | October 6, 2007 12:43 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Bad idea. Santorum couldn't even win in his own state and though I like him he does not have a good image outside the conservative Republicans. Huckabee, however, would be a great choice. It could save the south for the ticket, and he would be great on the stump.
4. Posted by harris | October 6, 2007 12:43 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on October 6, 2007 12:43
5. Posted by bryanD | October 6, 2007 1:55 PM | Score: -1 (1 votes cast)
"I had a similar thought, bD, but you are neglecting completely the idea that the ticket is proposed to win nationally=kim"
Reason 1 of 21 Reasons The Ghoul can't win:
The Ghoul(R) is FOR partial-birth abortion.
*clears the mind, doesn't it?*
5. Posted by bryanD | October 6, 2007 1:55 PM |
Score: -1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on October 6, 2007 13:55
6. Posted by kim | October 6, 2007 2:36 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Don't be silly; nobody is FOR partial-birth abortion. Now that we have that cleared up.
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6. Posted by kim | October 6, 2007 2:36 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on October 6, 2007 14:36
7. Posted by kim | October 6, 2007 2:41 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
And, Santorum could spend his time telling people about how the Democratic candidate is less against partial abortion than the Republican slate, and Giuliani can focus on prosecuting the case against Democrats.
But still, the ticket stinks. Rickety, ruinous.
Say, Al d'Amato is playing Giuliani in mock debates for the Thompson camp. Tres interesant.
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7. Posted by kim | October 6, 2007 2:41 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 6, 2007 14:41
8. Posted by bryanD | October 6, 2007 3:39 PM | Score: -1 (1 votes cast)
"nobody is FOR partial-birth abortion=kim"
Are you now wearing, or have you ever worn, a Star Trek costume?
"Say, Al d'Amato is playing Giuliani in mock debates for the Thompson camp.=kim"
Show up, drink, schmooze, read some shit at the old guy. Could be college girls there!
8. Posted by bryanD | October 6, 2007 3:39 PM |
Score: -1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on October 6, 2007 15:39
9. Posted by kim | October 6, 2007 3:59 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
C'mon, c'mon, c'mon. What happened to 'Legal but rare'? That's hardly FOR partial-birth abortion.
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9. Posted by kim | October 6, 2007 3:59 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 6, 2007 15:59
10. Posted by JC | October 6, 2007 5:09 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I agree that Huckabee would be a better choice
10. Posted by JC | October 6, 2007 5:09 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 6, 2007 17:09
11. Posted by Lee Ward | October 6, 2007 8:44 PM | Score: -1 (1 votes cast)
I'm so glad someone brought up Rick Santorum. I haven't been able to use this link since Santorum tried to revive his failing re-election campaign by calling a press conference to announce that we'd discovered WMDs in Iraq, only to have it denied by the White House.
Link - Santorum, That's Latin for Asshole.
lol! a lobbyist for the World Wrestling Federation - lol!
In other words, Santorum doesn't despise homosexuals, he just abhors what homosexuals do in bed.
Something tells me Santorum and Larry Craig share the same "dreams"...
Yeah, that whole concept of "freedom" in our country is way overblown, and is destroying the family...
WHOA there -- "Man on Dog??? Did he really say "Man on Dog?!?!?
I guess Santorum's dreams are a little more vivid than I imagined.
Yeah, run this guy as Rudy's VP. Please.... pretty please!
11. Posted by Lee Ward | October 6, 2007 8:44 PM |
Score: -1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on October 6, 2007 20:44
12. Posted by kim | October 6, 2007 9:38 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Lee Ward tries to be the sort of man his dog imagines him to be on.
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12. Posted by kim | October 6, 2007 9:38 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 6, 2007 21:38
13. Posted by kim | October 6, 2007 9:39 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
And hey, why can you talk here and I can't talk at WizBlue?
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13. Posted by kim | October 6, 2007 9:39 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on October 6, 2007 21:39
14. Posted by Jim Addison | October 7, 2007 1:45 AM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
That's not "talking." It's called cutting and pasting.
14. Posted by Jim Addison | October 7, 2007 1:45 AM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on October 7, 2007 01:45
15. Posted by Glenn Koons | October 8, 2007 12:18 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
There are some good columns out by Freeman, Pastore, and bloggers all debating the races with the Christian Right somehow deciding to self-detruct and by it, pull the GOP assunder just in time for Her Highness to turn the nation into a socialist pacifist Third World country. Frankly, the voters are split all over the joint. Rudy could, could beat Her but a VP like Huck would really solidfy the South and some border states. And it would give the Purist Pubs some hope that there would be balance in the ticket. Iowa seems to be trending Mitt. If Mitt prevails, the Huck would be the same good choice. Frankly, Fred seems like a Deadhead. He is not inspiring that much though he is now ahead of John and Rudy in Iowa. So what? Iowa has how many electoral votes??? GOPers should want a winner with a chance to get some conservative agendas through a sure fire Dem Congress. Rudy-Huck, Mitt-Huck might just give them that chance. Any other choice, Fred, John will get slaughtered by the One whose name shall not be praised.
15. Posted by Glenn Koons | October 8, 2007 12:18 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 8, 2007 00:18
16. Posted by kim | October 8, 2007 5:49 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Well, so we worry.
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16. Posted by kim | October 8, 2007 5:49 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 8, 2007 05:49
17. Posted by kim | October 8, 2007 9:18 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I like Romney for COO and Fred and Rudy for CEO and AG, either way.
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17. Posted by kim | October 8, 2007 9:18 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 8, 2007 09:18
18. Posted by kim | October 8, 2007 9:20 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Mitt could work State, too.
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18. Posted by kim | October 8, 2007 9:20 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 8, 2007 09:20
19. Posted by P. Bunyan | October 8, 2007 11:17 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Interesting speculation, but the Vice President does not nominate Supreme Court justices.
And this classic example of media bias demonstrates that it's about more than just judicial appointments, though Rudy'd rather people didn't think about things like that.
(P.S., Dan Rather's bias is a lot more obvious in video than in the transcripts I linked to above, but I couldn't find the link to the videos.)
19. Posted by P. Bunyan | October 8, 2007 11:17 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 8, 2007 11:17