Two major polls released in recent days show former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee surging into the lead in the Iowa Republican Caucuses. The Des Moines Register shows Huckabee leading Romney 29%-24%, gaining 17% support since the last poll in early October. Giuliani trails with 13% in third, while Thompson holds 4th with 9% support, followed by McCain and Paul tied with 7%. Full results at the preceding link.

Rasmussen Reports has Huckabee first with 28%, Romney at 25%, Giuliani with 12% and Thompson holding 11%, the others in the low single digits. These results are within standard error margin of the Register's figures. Other recently conducted polls tend to confirm the movement, showing Huckabee a close second to Romney. The Real Clear Politics average of recent polls also gives Huckabee the lead by a hair's breadth at 0.2% over Romney. More detail at the links provided.

Another substantiation of the strong push by Huckabee is the "mention" by Romney staffers to more than one reporter and blogger that they expect to come out of Iowa "in the top two," and that it will be enough to follow with a win of New Hampshire. Romney has spent several millions of dollars in the state, and his entire strategy has been based upon winning Iowa and New Hampshire to overcome his deficit in national polls in time to win the nomination. Even a second place in Iowa would put this plan in severe jeopardy, since Romney's once-formidable lead in New Hampshire has also been slipping of late.

Romney's strong poll showings in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina have corresponded closely with his big media campaigns in those states. Huckabee has spent little (mainly because he has little to spend), but has parlayed the slight momentum of his second-place finish at the Ames, Iowa Straw Poll in August (only made possible because Giuliani and McCain declined to compete, and Thompson had not yet declared) into the maximum possible. His dependably strong debate performances have buttressed this effort.

Only a few days ago there were a spate of articles and blog posts about the Republican side devolving into "a two-man race" between Giuliani and Romney. These clearly jumped the gun, as Giuliani is currently distracted by scandal allegations (admittedly, old ones) and Romney's faltering poll numbers. McCain is moving up strongly in New Hampshire, and with the electorate so divided it is impossible to count Thompson out just yet, either.

No one has much of an advantage here. Giuliani still holds a double-digit lead in most national polls, but his support has stabilized under 30% - and that was before his recent difficulties. It's wide open, and any of the top five could win.