The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll of likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire shows the race tightening, with Hillary Clinton's lead over Barack Obama down to 35-29%. John Edwards trails in third with 17% (which is about where he's been in other recent polls).

The other day former Clinton adviser Dick Morris wrote that Hillary's surest path to winning the nomination would be to LOSE both Iowa and New Hampshire, because that would increase the scrutiny on Obama. Morris believes Democrats would conclude the Illinois Senator's limited experience would hurt his candidacy in a general election, and their burning need to win the White House would lead them back to the Clinton camp.

It's an interesting theory, which could possibly work. However, the tried and true method of winning the nomination includes winning New Hampshire. Only two candidates in the more than 50-year history of the "first in the nation primary" have lost there and gone on to win the Presidency - Bill Clinton in 1992 and George W. Bush in 2000. Since these exceptions are so recent, it may seem the charm of New Hampshire is now confined to its rustic beauty and quirky inhabitants, but both cases were exceptional.

Clinton faced a popular Senator from neighboring Massachusetts, Paul Tsongas, so his task was daunting to begin with. He parlayed his second-place finish - right after the Gennifer Flowers scandal had damaged his chances - into "The Comeback Kid" story, and soon took the lead as the race moved south. Bush had amassed the endorsements of much of the Republican establishment and raised then-record amounts of money before winning Iowa, while McCain skipped Iowa and concentrated on New Hampshire. His "Straight Talk Express" appealed to the state's self-image and independent nature, and he drew enough independent and Democratic voters (Gore wasn't seriously challenged by Bill Bradley) to win outright. So there were "special circumstances" in both cycles . . .

A win is a win. With the proportionate allocation of delegates, victory in a Democratic primary doesn't usually make a huge difference in convention votes, but the psychology of winning is important to the media "buzz" which in turn affects subsequent contests. Hillary can't be happy with seeing her once-formidable lead in the Granite State slipping away, but even a one-point win should be enough to keep her on track for the nomination. A loss might be overcome, 'tis true, but seeing it as a win is more "spin" than strategy.