In the last week or so, Mike Huckabee has surged to the lead in Iowa and into at least a close second nationally in polls of the Republican nomination contest. Now he is also showing a lead in South Carolina, according to Rasmussen Reports:

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has taken the lead in South Carolina's Republican Presidential Primary. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Huckabee with 25% of the vote, Mitt Romney with 18% and Fred Thompson with 18%. A month ago, Romney and Thompson were on top.

The latest election poll also shows Rudy Giuliani with 12% of the vote, John McCain with 9%, and Ron Paul with 4%.

Read the whole story at the above link. It should be noted that Rasmussen has tended to find stronger support for Thompson, and weaker support for Giuliani and McCain, than most other polls.

There are several factors in Huckabee's sudden rise, and they don't necessarily point to him winning the nomination.

Most importantly among these, Huckabee has been the beneficiary of the widespread disappointment with Fred Thompson's campaign. Thompson was supposed to be the conservative White Knight who would ride in to save the party from abandoning its Reaganite stances, and was running a strong second nationally before he formally launched his campaign. His performance has been lackluster, especially in the view of many early supporters. Most of these conservatives had already decided not to support McCain, Giuliani, or Romney, and Thompson's quick fizzle left them without a candidate. But there was Huckabee - reliably strong on social conservative issues, and very articulate and charming in debates and on the stump.

In effect, he became the "none of the above" candidate.

His views and record on government spending, raising taxes, free trade, and immigration are anything but aligned with conservative positions, though, so the conservatives supporting him in the polls are doing so on the basis of social issues and personal appeal. Once they take a hard look at Huckabee on economic and foreign policy issues, the bloom could come off of the rose rather precipitously.

Huckabee stood a better chance of winning by staying behind a little longer, keeping the spotlight off of his record and remaining the "none of the above" candidate. He might then have garnered a clear win in Iowa as something of a surprise, giving him momentum going forward. His early peak raises the expectations considerably, so even a win won't seem so dramatic.

He's still running fourth in New Hampshire, and hasn't converted his sudden popularity into the kind of campaign donations which fuel a national campaign. In fact, Huck's breakout makes Iowa an even better target for Romney: diminished expectations will enable him to survive a close second finish (which as little as a week or so ago would have been considered a devastating blow), and even a narrow win will carry more momentum now than previously supposed. IF he can win it, or finish a close second, that is . . .

But my gut feeling is that many of the current Huckabee supporters are about to develop a serious case of "buyer's remorse" as they learn more about him. Thompson, McCain, or even Ron Paul could benefit from those conservatives having to start looking again.