For most of this year, John Edwards was the odds-on favorite to win the Iowa caucuses. He has been organizing in the state since early 2003, and finished a strong and surprising second in the 2004 caucuses - after having been predicted to come in a poor fourth. This cycle, Edwards has put most of his eggs in the Iowa basket, counting on the organization and dedicated supporters to bring him to victory there and inspire enough national momentum to compete in the following states. The last two months have seen Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama catch and surpass him, if only barely, and the expectations are down. Edwards still has a plan to win, though, Arian Campo-Flores and Suzanne Smalley report for Newsweek:

For months, Edwards has been rounding up support in the state's rural precincts where the front runners have paid less attention. While Obama and Clinton have drawn crowds in the thousands in places like Des Moines and Ames, Edwards has been winning over people in tiny towns like Sac City (population: 2,189). That's important, the strategists say, because under Iowa's arcane caucus rules, a precinct where 25 people show up to vote gets the same number of delegates as a place that packs in 2,500. In other words, even if he loses to Obama and Clinton in the state's bigger cities, he can still win by wrapping up smaller, far-flung precincts that other candidates have ignored. "The bulk of our support is in small and medium counties," says Jennifer O'Malley, Edwards's Iowa state director. O'Malley says Edwards has visited all 99 counties in the state; the campaign has so far trained captains covering 90 percent of all 1,781 precincts. Rural voters are sometimes reluctant to caucus, so the campaign has been enlisting respected community leaders to encourage first-timers to get past their apathy or fear.

Read the rest at the above link, although most of it is a love sonnet to Edwards from the fawning reporters. I don't believe the caucus rules are precisely stated above. Iowa Democrats "weight" precinct delegates totals based on the past Democratic vote in that precinct. It is, therefore, possible for a smaller precinct which has gone heavily Democratic to have more delegates to award than a more populous precinct which has been competitive, and many more than one which has voted Republican. The number of people who show up to caucus at the precinct on January 3rd has no bearing on the number of delegates available, so the scenario envisioned is indeed possible, especially with Edwards' organization.

The problem with this strategy is that the reporting on election night will center on raw numbers, because the delegate allocations are complicated and won't be completed for a few days. It is within the realm of possibility, then, that Edwards might actually "win" the caucuses, but still be reported as having finished third on the initial counting. With New Hampshire coming so close behind, he might not get the credit for winning Iowa in time to make any difference there.

Even if his strategy works perfectly and he wins the most delegates, Edwards remains a long-shot dark horse for the nomination - but he isn't dead yet.