The Des Moines Register has released their latest poll before Thursday's caucuses. Their samples of 800 likely caucus-goers in each party is the largest I've seen for the state. (Full results and report at the preceding link).
On the Democratic side, the poll shows Barack Obama moving to a significant lead with 32% over Hillary Clinton's 25% and John Edwards with 24%. No other candidate breaks into double digits. The Real Clear Politics average of recent polls (including DMR's) still shows Hillary with a tiny lead over both Obama and Edwards at 28.0 - 26.4 - 26.3, a statistical dead heat.
For the Republicans, DMR finds Mike Huckabee with a similar lead over Mitt Romney, 32% - 26%, with John McCain moving into third at 13%. RCP shows a much narrower contest in their average, Huckabee holding a 28.3 - 27.7 lead over Romney, McCain still in third at 12.0.
The poll was taken December 27-30, so news of the Bhutto assassination should be factored into respondents' choices. This is significant for both Obama and Huckabee, as both men faced questions about their lack of foreign policy experience and acumen which many pundits supposed would be underlined by the upheaval in the world's only Muslim nation with nuclear weapons. Those who noted that Iowans typically care less about foreign affairs than the nation as a whole find their views confirmed in the poll results, where neither man was apparently harmed in the wake of the unsettling news.
One Iowan laughs at the poll, though: he says the state has been so inundated with politicians and pollsters for so long this cycle that fewer people will answer their phones any more. This could possibly affect the validity of the sample. We will know soon enough.
Other factors may come into play, too. The weather is expected to improve a bit for Thursday, with mostly clear skies and temperatures in 20s (Tuesday and Wednesday will see lows near 0 and highs in the teens). No significant precipitation is expected. This will tend to help Obama and Huckabee, who lead their respective parties in support by "first-time caucusers" who might be discouraged by worse conditions.
Democrats will face challenges of their own. Republicans treat their caucuses as a non-binding primary of sorts, with a single secret ballot, so they can get in and out relatively quickly. The GOP will select actual voting delegates to the National Convention later at a state convention. Democrats must plan on as much as several hours of caucusing. For many men, this will conflict with the Virginia Tech - Kansas Orange Bowl game that night. Whether a significant number will stay home to watch it can't be foreseen, but represents more of a danger to Obama, whose supporters tend to be younger. Clinton might be helped, because she holds the lead among women caucus-goers.
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2008 Presidential Race, Iowa, Polls, Primaries
Tags: Iowa, poll, presidential campaign
Comments (6)
I think it's also worth not... (Below threshold)1. Posted by COgirl | January 1, 2008 2:01 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I think it's also worth noting that many of us think that letting 2 states, Iowa and New Hampshire, have so much influence over the election is nuts.
But I tend to suspect that the poll may be close to accurate. I do think that Huck has a lot of appeal in Iowa but probably won't survive on the national stage. (Ditto for Romney, btw.)
On the Dem side, not too long ago, Rush had a caller on from Iowa who said that absolutely no one he had spoken to was going to vote for Hills. And he was a union man and that's who he spoke to -- union members. Personally, I believe Iowans are too smart to be duped by a carpetbagger like Hills unlike the citizens of New York.
1. Posted by COgirl | January 1, 2008 2:01 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on January 1, 2008 14:01
2. Posted by bryanD | January 1, 2008 3:25 PM | Score: -1 (1 votes cast)
Ron Paul will come in 3rd place in Iowa.
Have you seen his latest ad? Wheel right!
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/01/ron-pauls-immig.html
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"...Rush had a caller on from Iowa who said that absolutely no one he had spoken to was going to vote for Hills."-cog
Rush heavily screens his callers to make himself "look good".
I would add that Rush is a hopeless mind-over-matter Optimist(tm) type guy who makes Deeprak Chopra look like John Knox.
But for union members who are Democrats (and thus in-synch), they will vote for the union-endorsed Democratic candidate. If that's not Hillary, then the caller is correct.
Hillary DOES have a base with the Democratic old folks nationwide, though. She will be a contender everywhere. She's seen as the anti-Bush for some strange reason.
2. Posted by bryanD | January 1, 2008 3:25 PM |
Score: -1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on January 1, 2008 15:25
3. Posted by COgirl | January 1, 2008 4:16 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
I didn't know Bush was running again.
3. Posted by COgirl | January 1, 2008 4:16 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on January 1, 2008 16:16
4. Posted by bryanD | January 1, 2008 5:26 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I didn't know Bush was running again.
Posted by COgirl
As Michael Corleone said to Kay at Connie's wedding, "Now who's being naive?"
4. Posted by bryanD | January 1, 2008 5:26 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on January 1, 2008 17:26
5. Posted by Alan Orfi | January 1, 2008 7:42 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
The Register has performed miserably in the past and is not reliable. Huckabee's support in Iowa is primarily from issue-driven voters and they tend to be faithful on caucus day. Romney's support is mostly establishment-driven and this can be fleeting, but Huckabee has certainly not knocked anyone's socks off these past few weeks, so this will likely be extremely close. Given the extreme liabilities both Huckabee and Romney have evidenced this past month, the main storyline from Iowa on the Republican side may be the race for third. Thompson, Giuliani or McCain will finish a "suprising" third and can use that result as a springboard to Michigan and New Hampshire.
Ironically, the second-place finisher in Iowa (presumably Huckabee or Romney) could very well be doomed. If Huckabee loses, it cements the fact that his moment was squandered and he likely loses Michigan and South Carolina. If Romney loses, he will likely collapse in New Hampshire and he has little chance in South Carolina and Florida. In my opinion, Iowa will serve more as an elimination round in the nomination process.
5. Posted by Alan Orfi | January 1, 2008 7:42 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on January 1, 2008 19:42
6. Posted by Glenn Koons | January 2, 2008 1:31 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I am sick and tired of Iowa and NH determining the GOP's guy. Feb. 5 should determine the winner. Electorally, these two states are just inane in setting a national momentum. I will be voting for Rudy with all his flaws in Ca. on Feb. 5. I just want to see how much the GOP voters follow the script now laid out by the MSM. I still believe GOP voters are not sheep.
6. Posted by Glenn Koons | January 2, 2008 1:31 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on January 2, 2008 13:31