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Edwards Creeping up on Hillary in South Carolina

Edwards appears to be gaining some ground on Hillary according to two new South Carolina polls out yesterday. Public Policy Polling has the race:

Obama: 44%
Clinton: 24%
Edwards: 19%

Zogby has the race:

Obama: 38%
Clinton: 25%
Edwards: 21%

Considering undecideds and margins of error it's really a dead heat for second.

Edwards could be seeing a late surge due to his performance in the debate which most observers ranked as good. His populist message seems to be connecting with a lot of people. The question now is what would a third-place finish mean for Hillary's campaign? Could it have the effect of puncturing the inevitability aura that was shattered in Iowa but rebuilt in New Hampshire and Nevada? Could Democratic voters be starting to give John Edwards a serious look and liking what they see?

Some observers like Dick Morris have been saying that Edwards should vacate the race because he is splitting the anti-Hillary vote. I'm not so sure about that. I haven't had the sense that there was a particularly strong anti-Hillary contingent within the Democratic Party even with the rough-and-tumble tactics the Clintons have employed lately.

There's no guarantee that if Edwards dropped out of the race his supporters would automatically gravitate to Obama. My guess is they would probably split evenly among the two. However, if Edwards stays in the race he may begin to chip away more at Hillary's base of support than Obama's. On an ideological spectrum I would place Hillary and Edwards closer to each other than either is to Obama. Certainly on health care that's the case.

So maybe Obama supporters should be cheering for Edwards to stay in rather than get out?

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Comments (4)

The reason behind Edwards s... (Below threshold)

The reason behind Edwards strength in SC is that its his home state. He was born in SC.

The fact that he can't even win his home state demonstrates that he's not viable nationally, but we knew that already from his poor performance in Nevada.

Ideologically, the three top Dems line up this way in my view

- Obama closest to center, as is demonstrated by his strength among independents

- Clinton to the left of Obama

- Edwards to the left of Clinton, as the most progressive of the three.

Politically, Edwards supporters who leave him may be ideologically more aligned with Clinton, but there's that nasty Hillary-hating factor, so in my view the supporters leaving Edwards end up being split between Obama and Clinton. Race and gender factor in as well.

In terms of voting records Obama and Clinton are very close, but their styles make Obama more of a centrist. He's much more of a collaborative leader than Clinton, and less "progressive" in terms of having a hard ideological center and platform that drives his politics.

Obama wants be the the nation's healer, not the nation's progressive leader, if that helps... This explains his appeal that crosses party lines. My father, a conservative whose voted the straight GOP ticket for decades, is planning to vote for Obama.

Edwards has bothered to act... (Below threshold)

Edwards has bothered to act like a "South Carolina native" exactly twice in his entire life: when running for President in 2004 and now. No one here takes him seriously as a home boy.

He won the SC Primary in 2004 because he was more acceptable than Kerry, but he would have been so even without the laughable claim of "native son."

I fail to see how Obama becomes a "centrist" with his straight-down-the-party-line voting record. Where exactly is he building any bridges? By throwing a rhetorical bone at Reagan's legacy, which he quickly "clarified?"

If anyone is a notch to the center - and, as Lee notes, the Obama and Clinton voting records are virtually identical - it is Hillary, who has left herself some wiggle room on foreign policy and can claim some direct descent from the good economy in the late '90s.

Obama's only edge in a general election is the fact old media refuses to say anything negative about him.

I think the first 2 comment... (Below threshold)
Nobama:

I think the first 2 comments nailed it. Obama is clearly benefiting from 2 things, which I think are contradictory:
1) the perception among independents and Republicans that he's a centrist, based on his rhetoric, his policy proposals and his record in the U.S. Senate.
2) the perception among Democrats that he's a progressive, based on his past record as a progressive organizer, his record in the Illinois Senate, and the media's hook-line-sinker swallowing of the "change" without substance meme.

These two things will conflict at some point: either when the GOP starts tearing into Obama in the fall, or now. I prefer the latter, because I don't see how Obama can go anywhere but down, given that he's currently all things to all people.

"I fail to see how Obama... (Below threshold)

"I fail to see how Obama becomes a "centrist" with his straight-down-the-party-line voting record."

Ignore his voting record as a Senator and look at his positions and "leadership style" as a presidential candidate. He's a deal-maker, and he's playing it right down the middle.

How many progressives support nuclear energy these days, Jim? And one of Obama's top corporate supporters is Excelon.

Obama has a liberal voting record in the Senate, he and Clinton are almost identical, but as a Presidential hopeful Senator Obama is clearly signaling a willingness to make deals with moderates and conservatives. That's why Edwardsa and Clinton both went ballastic in the last debate over Obama's willingness to "give up" on truly universal health care. Obama walks into the ring as a moderate ready to make a deal with both sides -- he is NOT coming into the ring with a progressive agenda.

Whether he'd live up to these deals, or just take the moderates' votes and go progressive after winning, remains to be seen -- but progressives are coming to grips with the fact that Obama isn't progressive - and you'll see that in places like California -- and in places like liberal New Hampshire -- where many said they like Obama but then voted for Clinton.




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