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More Confusing Polls on the Democratic Race

Update: Word is now spreading that there won't be a delegate count from California until Friday. I can say that I take great pride in the fact that my home state will take more time than any of the other states in determining who gets our delegates.

According to Zogby, Obama is creaming Hillary in California (data from pollster.com):

Obama: 49
Clinton: 36
Undecided: 13

According to SurveyUSA, Hillary is creaming Obama in California:

Clinton: 52
Obama: 42
Undecided: 2

According to Rasmussen, it's a dead heat:

Obama: 45
Clinton: 44

The Real Clear Poltiics average tells us that Obama is up by 1.2% in California which is statistically insignificant given the margins of error and the number of undecideds in the polls. The only thing we know for certain from these polls is that the race has tightened over the past month.

It should be an interesting night or rather early morning if you want to know the results from California according to the San Diego Union Tribune:

An analysis by the Field Poll projects that a record 8.9 million Californians will vote in today's primary election.

That represents 56.6 percent of the state's registered voters and would reverse the steady decline in voter turnout in primary elections in California.

"That 8.9 million is almost what we had in the last general election," Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo said. "This is a huge turnout for a primary - 1 million more than any previous primary."

The massive turnout, combined with a large amount of absentee voting, and use of paper ballots in some areas where voting machines have been tossed out means that we won't know definitive results until probably tomorrow morning.


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Comments (3)

Well we voted for Mitt in t... (Below threshold)

Well we voted for Mitt in the Soviet Republic of Ca. Obama may be surging as his pacifist socialist agenda reminds his fellow leftists of Camelot, Christ or Huey Long. Who knows? But, one is now wondering just who is more dangerous for this nation, JesusObama or the Hildabeast? He has no agenda except more liberalism posed in the agent of hope, change and exactly for WHAT? Ah, the emotive nuttiness of people not only in the DNC types but in the youth, females and minorities who want to see free enterprise, a republican democracy and liberty just put aside for some frothy type of inspiration and oh yes, a Third World status where we are all alike, miserable, moderate, not rich, and surely forced to pay now for all the unproductive.

I voted for Paul in OK, ass... (Below threshold)
bryanD:

I voted for Paul in OK, assuredly not a Paul state. Cointelpro campaign of defacing city intersections with spray-painted "Ron Paul" grafitti, and the monkeys take it at face value. I'll bet. We'll see.

McCain should defeat Huckabee due to help from deficit hawk Sen.Tom Coburn's endorsement. Mitt will be waaay back in 3rd; the Bible Belt thing. McCain will keep most of the chamber of commerce vote which were Mitt's hope. (See Coburn above)

Thanks to the Little Dixie counties in the southern part of the state and heavy Democratic blue collar vote in Tulsa, I predict Hillary gets well over 55%. Unfortunately.

"I predict Hillary gets wel... (Below threshold)
bryanD:

"I predict Hillary gets well over 55%."

I need to lay off the adjectives! I could'a NAILED it. I blame Edward's "other" 10%!




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