Update: A Survey USA poll has good news for Obama in Washington state:
Obama: 53%
Clinton: 40%
Undecided: 7%
MOE: 4.2%
The immediate road ahead for the Democrats looks to favor Obama:
Feb. 9
Washington caucus - Could be close but Obama does well in caucuses.
Nebraska caucus - Obama is doing well in the plains states. He took neighboring Kansas, Iowa and Colorado. Advantage Obama.
Louisiana primary - Obama should win big given that the state is 32.4% black.
Feb. 10
Maine caucus - another caucus Obama will probably win.
Feb.12
District of Columbia caucus - 60% black and a caucus. Slam dunk for Obama.
Maryland primary - 27% black. Obama won neighboring Delaware and should do well.
Virginia primary - 19% black. Has a lot of upscale voters who tend toward Obama. This is also an open primary and with Romney dropping out voters will have less incentive to cast a Republican ballot. Advantage Obama.
Feb. 19
Hawaii caucus - Obama's state of birth and a caucus. Advantage Obama.
Wisconsin primary - Obama does well in the midwest. He won neighboring Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois. Could be close but I think Obama will win.
That's 9 consecutive contests where Obama could run the table. If he does, the Clinton campaign will be on life support. It's a long road from now until March 4 when Ohio and Texas could turn things around for her. In the meantime, we are going to see Obama rolling up delegates, having victory celebrations, raising and spending tons of money. He raised 3 times as much money in January and HIllary is now dipping into her own pockets to the tune of $5 million.
Still, Hillary's got the establishment behind her (as is demonstrated by the super-delegate count). But she's exhausted, broke, uninspiring and has zero momentum. Women could still put her over the top though. I expect more tears from her in the next few weeks.
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Filed under:
2008 Presidential Race
Tags: Barack Obama, Democratic presidential campaign, Hillary Clinton
Comments (2)
Why do you have Iowa and Il... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Justin K. | February 7, 2008 10:59 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Why do you have Iowa and Illinois listed under upcoming votes?
1. Posted by Justin K. | February 7, 2008 10:59 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 7, 2008 22:59
2. Posted by Steve Crickmore | February 8, 2008 11:33 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
The best laid plans... Hillary campaign chairman wheeler dealer Terry McAuliffe who front loaded the campaign thought it would be all over by February 5th had better regroup if they can.
Their strategy was to go for the big swing states, and ignore the smaller February 5 states and that it would be all over by now..They don't have much left in the bank or a good grass roots organization in the next 9 states.
2. Posted by Steve Crickmore | February 8, 2008 11:33 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 8, 2008 11:33