Looks like a blowout in Washington too. CNN just called it for Obama.

Well, I've been trying to explain the Huckabee campaign for two months now. He did NOT have some personal agenda against Mitt Romney. Just as Fred attacked Huckabee in SC, it was of paramount importance for Huckabee to try to get Mitt out of the race in order to have an opportunity to compete singularly with McCain. He achieved that and now we are seeing that CONSERVATIVES are responding to Huckabee.

The MSM has been reporting Karl Rove's comment that Huckabee needs to win 83 percent of the remaining delegates to win the nomination. While this is true, it is also a fact that he needs to win only 59 percent of the delegates to force a brokered convention (that's down to 58 percent after the victory in Kansas today). If one considers that Texas and their 140 winner-take-all delegates are very likely going to Huckabee, the simple math reveals that Huckabee needs to break even with McCain in all the other states in order to prevent the 1,191 total. So, no, he does not have a chance at winning the nomination outright, but Mike Huckabee does have a plausible path to the nomination via second round voting at the convention next September. Of course, it is a very long shot, but it is not impossible.

With that said, McCain victories in Louisiana or Washington would make Huckabee's chances beyond remote, so this entire post could be worthless in a few hours!

"we are seeing that CONSERVATIVES are responding to Huckabee"

But why? Huckabee isn't a conservative. He's a tax-hiking budget-buster.

But why? Huckabee isn't a conservative. He's a tax-hiking budget-buster.

Yes, but he's more conservative than McCain isn't he?

Get with the program, Lloyd. Huckabee supports a constitutional amendment protecting life, he is an adamant supporter of our second Amendment rights, the immigration plan he's espoused on his platform contains NO amnesty and requires illegals to leave and apply for reentry, he opposed McCain's crazy campaign finance reform and he had NOT been the tax raiser so many people have been suggesting. No, he's not a slash-and-burn fiscal conservative, but his tax record in Arkansas indicates the tax rates LOWERED during his ten-year tenure. Yes, the actual revenues increased by $500M over the ten years, but the rates actually went down. With all respect, Lloyd, Huckabee actually BALANCED the budget in Arkansas each and every year... this is not the "budget-buster" you have inaccurately described.

As a principled social conservative, I think most of us in this forum would agree that Huckabee is much more likely to appoint constructionist judges than John McCain.

It is not even close. If we are opposed to McCain, then Mike Huckabee is a significant upgrade for those who hold true conservative principles.

I'm so tired of politics that I haven't followed the details of what's going on with the Dems. Can someone tell me if Obama was expected to win these states? Is it significant that Hillary got trounced here?

COgirl,

Obama had been expected to win Washington and Nebraska primarily because those were caucuses and his campaign is better at organizing the ground forces needed for those. And he should have been expected to win the Louisiana primary because of the significant African-American population there. I anticipated he would do well in this post but the margin of victory is more than I expected.

Tuesday will be interesting on the Dem site. The polls look great for Obama in Virginia and Maryland. The margins are wider than I would have thought. I would have expected Hillary could take Virginia or at least make it close.

Thanks, Larkin. That was my impression that the margin of victory for Obama was a bit of a surprise. I think Bill's blundering in South Carolina is costing Hillary deeply. The calculating Clintons may have miscalculated. But I think they are going to pull out all the stops to get back in power.

I think Bill Clinton's disappearance from the headlines pretty much confirms that they now believe he was damaging Hillary's campaign.

She's got a real quandary now about how to slow down Obama's momentum. But I'm sure she'll do what politicians always do when their back is against the wall: go negative. In a big way.

Regarding the Republican race, we are witnessing the GOP version of the identity card. In places where evangelicals are large in number, Huckabee is turning them out in droves through his church connections. Among non-evangelicals, he is getting votes in the single digits. Plus, caucuses are strange animals, in that a number of party activists get together and decide who to vote for, far different from a regular primary or the general election. (True for both parties.)

I think McCain camp is encouraging Huckabee to flex his political muscle for the month of February, to bolster his case for the VP slot. The Potomac primaries on Feb 12 will probably be Huckabee's last hurrah, if he can win VA (a winner-take-all state). The GOP race then shifts to states where the evangelical strength is limited, and it is over.

Sam,

You have forgotten about Texas and they have 140 winner-take-all delegates. Huckabee has had a strong ground game there and is very likely to win.

People keep talking about the implausibility of Huckabee winning the nomination outright. This is correct, but they are only now beginning to realize that McCain does NOT have a lot on 1191 delegates and may not reach that total. If he fails to get his 1191 delegates before May, McCain would never prevail in a brokered convention.

Huckabee dominated among conservatives yesterday. While he didn't win all the delegates, he did stop McCain from winning them. Louisiana's delegates will not be awarded until the convention... so McCain did not get much closer to his necessary total.

Again, if Texas goes to Huckabee, he only has to win 50 percent of the remaining delegates to prevent McCain from attaining 1191.

Alan:

Keep hope alive.

Here's the reality, Texas is not a winner-take-all. The only WTAs left are Virginia, Washington DC, and Vermont. All others are some sort of proportional delegates, based on state-wide and congressional district-wide performance, with a large portion in each state going to the winner. Plus, most of the states left are primaries, where the general population votes, and not caucuses, where supercharged activists wield larger influence than the numbers warrant. Plus, I believe the only deep South state left is Mississippi.

You do the math.

Alan Orfi:

Sorry for the long excerpt, but here are the Texas primary rules:

"The Republican presidential primary is actually 33 separate elections -- one for each of the state's 32 congressional districts, and one statewide. One hundred and forty delegates are at stake.

Each congressional district elects three delegates, for a total of 96.
--If one candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in a congressional district, that candidate wins all three delegates.
--If no candidate wins 50% of the vote, but two candidates win 20% or more of the vote, the candidate with the higher vote total wins two delegates and the candidate with the lower vote total wins one delegate.
--If one candidate wins 20% or more of the vote but less than 50%, and no other candidate wins 20% of the vote, the candidate with more than 20% of the vote wins all three delegates.
--If no candidate receives more than 20% of the vote, then the top three vote-getters receive 1 delegate each.

Forty-one delegates are elected statewide, making a cumulative total of 137.
--If one candidate wins a majority of the votes statewide, that candidate gets all 41 delegates.
--If no candidate wins a majority of the vote, but at least one candidate receives 20% or more of the vote, the delegates are awarded proportionately among the candidates receiving 20% or more of the vote.
--If no candidate receives 20% of the vote, all 41 delegates are rewarded proportionately."

Sam,

Examining Texas primary history, it does appear that candidates who win by 10 or more percent do end up with virtually all the delegates. I think this is very likely next month as McCain should not play well down there, especially considering how he has betrayed the President.