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Under Democrat Rules Romney Would be in Front

In this post I showed how Hillary would be way out in front right now if the Democrats played by the Republican winner-take-all-rules. Commenter DoubleU observed that the Republican race would be different if they played under Democratic proportional allocation rules. So I cranked up the spreadsheet and calculated the numbers:

Romney427
McCain414
Huckabee229
Paul75
Giuliani30
Thompson17

(Note: My calculations were using state-wide, not district, results; so it is just a rough estimate)

Again, what a difference the rules make. Instead of having McCain anointed there would be a real dog-fight right now. Here is the actual delegate count as it stands right now:

McCain721
Romney278
Huckabee195
Paul14
Thompson5
Giuliani1

Even more maddeningly for Romney supporters has to be the fact that this list of states that Romney won do not allocate based on the winner-take-all rules:

Alaska
Massachusetts
Michigan
Nevada
North Dakota
Wyoming

If all states had the winner-take-all rule Romney would be in somewhat better position:

McCain 696
Romney 388
Huckabee127

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Comments (3)

Romney knew the rules going... (Below threshold)
sam:

Romney knew the rules going in, didn't he? Face it, he was a dud candidate who did not sell.

(I second sam.)Now... (Below threshold)
bryanD:

(I second sam.)

Now if Huckabee can keep McCain 1 delegate short of the minimum necessary for nomination, it goes to the convention and everyone starts at effectively Zero.

McCain will find himself in deep doo doo.

I agree with the evaluation... (Below threshold)

I agree with the evaluation of Romney. It really shouldn't have ended up that way for him though because he seems to me the brightest of the lot.

It's interesting what's going on with Huckabee now. He seems to be determined to stay in to the convention and he won Kansas today. He needs to figure out how to broaden his appeal. It's certainly not a done deal on the Republican side like people were thinking.




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