In this post I showed how Hillary would be way out in front right now if the Democrats played by the Republican winner-take-all-rules. Commenter DoubleU observed that the Republican race would be different if they played under Democratic proportional allocation rules. So I cranked up the spreadsheet and calculated the numbers:
| Romney | 427 |
| McCain | 414 |
| Huckabee | 229 |
| Paul | 75 |
| Giuliani | 30 |
| Thompson | 17 |
(Note: My calculations were using state-wide, not district, results; so it is just a rough estimate)
Again, what a difference the rules make. Instead of having McCain anointed there would be a real dog-fight right now. Here is the actual delegate count as it stands right now:
| McCain | 721 |
| Romney | 278 |
| Huckabee | 195 |
| Paul | 14 |
| Thompson | 5 |
| Giuliani | 1 |
Even more maddeningly for Romney supporters has to be the fact that this list of states that Romney won do not allocate based on the winner-take-all rules:
Alaska
Massachusetts
Michigan
Nevada
North Dakota
Wyoming
If all states had the winner-take-all rule Romney would be in somewhat better position:
| McCain | 696 |
| Romney | 388 |
| Huckabee | 127 |
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2008 Presidential Race
Comments (3)
Romney knew the rules going... (Below threshold)1. Posted by sam | February 9, 2008 5:30 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Romney knew the rules going in, didn't he? Face it, he was a dud candidate who did not sell.
1. Posted by sam | February 9, 2008 5:30 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 9, 2008 17:30
2. Posted by bryanD | February 9, 2008 7:27 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
(I second sam.)
Now if Huckabee can keep McCain 1 delegate short of the minimum necessary for nomination, it goes to the convention and everyone starts at effectively Zero.
McCain will find himself in deep doo doo.
2. Posted by bryanD | February 9, 2008 7:27 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 9, 2008 19:27
3. Posted by Larkin![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangpolitics.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| February 9, 2008 8:35 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I agree with the evaluation of Romney. It really shouldn't have ended up that way for him though because he seems to me the brightest of the lot.
It's interesting what's going on with Huckabee now. He seems to be determined to stay in to the convention and he won Kansas today. He needs to figure out how to broaden his appeal. It's certainly not a done deal on the Republican side like people were thinking.
3. Posted by Larkin![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangpolitics.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| February 9, 2008 8:35 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 9, 2008 20:35