Update I: CNN calls Virginia for Obama. That's his 20th state.
Update II: NBC calls DC for Obama.
Update III: CNN calls Maryland for Obama. This makes it a clean sweep.
The Clinton spin machine at work:
Clinton aides have tried to dampen expectations, publicly stoking the prospect of an Obama sweep today. But strategic moves by both sides in recent days indicate that Virginia is positioned as Clinton's likeliest target of opportunity.Howard Wolfson, the Clinton campaign's communications director, said Virginia was "a state along with Maryland and others in February where Sen. Obama has significant advantages. We have long factored that reality into our planning."
So they have "long factored" that reality into their planning have they? Well, they haven't been planning for it too long because just 11 weeks ago the polls in Virginia were telling a different story:
Clinton: 49%
Obama: 25%
I'd be willing to wager that a poll taken before South Carolina would have shown similar results. The contest in South Carolina fundamentally changed the nature of this race because it demonstrated that Obama couldn't just beat Clinton but he could beat the tar out of her as his 28% margin in that state demonstrated. It also showed that he could dominate the African-American vote while splitting off a good percentage of the white vote.
Since South Carolina, Obama has racked up some hefty double-digit margins of victory:
Idaho: 63%
Alaska: 49%
Kansas: 48%
Washington: 37%
Nebraska: 36%
Colorado: 35%
Georgia: 35%
Minnesota: 34%
Illinois: 32%*
North Dakota: 24%
Louisiana: 21%
Maine: 19%
Utah: 18%
Alabama: 14%
While Clinton has less than half as many; two of which are her home states (asterisks):
Arkansas: 44%*
Oklahoma: 24%
New York: 17%*
Massachusetts: 15%
Tennessee: 13%
California: 10%
New Jersey: 10%
The margin of victory obviously matters because it translates into delegates given the proportional allocation rules that the Democrats follow. I assure you the Clinton campaign could not have foreseen these margins of victory even just two months ago. And now, they are desperately running their spin machine at full speed in order to manipulate the media into buying into their narrative that all of these Obama victories are no big deal because they were "expected".
The fact of the matter is that the Clinton campaign is fighting for it's life right now and desperately needs a win in one of the three contests up for grabs today. If they do manage to eke out a victory the media will no doubt echo their spin by declaring it a huge "upset" just as they declared her slim 3% margin in New Hampshire an upset.
In reality, the upset is that Obama has been able to win so many contests and by such large margins. That is what no one expected just a few months ago.
So let's not buy their spin this time around. A win is a win is a win. A 20% margin is a "blowout", 10% is a "big win", 5% is a "win", less than 5% is pretty much a draw. These characterizations should hold no matter which side comes out on top.



Comments (11)
Larkin, you are right it is... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Steve Crickmore | February 12, 2008 3:40 PM | Score: 0 (2 votes cast)
Larkin, you are right it is the margin of Obama's victories that have been impressive. And before Hillary can get to Texas and Ohio ( no push-overs either) on March 4th, there is the Hawaii caucus 29 delegates at stake and Wisconsin primary the same day, next Tuesday with another 92 delegates at stake. Here is a good clear site with a look at the upcoming contests.
1. Posted by Steve Crickmore | February 12, 2008 3:40 PM |
Score: 0 (2 votes cast)
Posted on February 12, 2008 15:40
2. Posted by Larkin
| February 12, 2008 4:21 PM | Score: 0 (2 votes cast)
It's get worse by the minute. See this Wisconsin poll
Obama 50, Clinton 39
Hawaii is a caucus state and a home state for Obama so he should be favored there.
If Obama sweeps everything from Super Tuesday to March 4, it means Ohio and Texas become absolute must wins for Clinton.
2. Posted by Larkin
| February 12, 2008 4:21 PM |
Score: 0 (2 votes cast)
Posted on February 12, 2008 16:21
3. Posted by Lee Ward | February 12, 2008 5:43 PM | Score: 0 (2 votes cast)
Ohio and Texas have been absolute wins for Clinton ever since super Tuesday. I think Pennsylvania falls into the same category, doesn't it?
Nothing's changed - nothing is new. This week's results are all very predictable and forecast following what happened on Super Tuesday. It wasn't nearly this predictable until Super Tuesday, so digging up 3 month old polls is just plain silly.
By "factoring" it in they are referring to the fact that they aren't wasting money on a lot of tv ads in those states where they know Obama will sweep, etc. The bulk of those decisions were made after Super Tuesday, and often with as little notice as a day or two.
I used to edit political campaign TV ads (exclusively for Democrats, of course). During the election season I would often get a call at 6am on a Saturday morning telling me we needed to get a new TV spot out in time to air at 6pm that night. They'd shoot it at 10, I'd edit it at noon, and it'd be on the air that same afternoon.
11 week old polls are not relevant to any campaign strategy underway this week, I assure you.
But keep trying, there's bound to be a pony in there somewhere... *wink.
3. Posted by Lee Ward | February 12, 2008 5:43 PM |
Score: 0 (2 votes cast)
Posted on February 12, 2008 17:43
4. Posted by Larkin
| February 12, 2008 6:53 PM | Score: 0 (2 votes cast)
By "factoring" it in they are referring to the fact that they aren't wasting money on a lot of tv ads in those states where they know Obama will sweep, etc.
If that's the case then why has Hillary been campaigning so hard in Virginia? Bill Clinton's been all over the state too. Why waste him on an election that can't be won?
The answer is that they "expected" to win Virgina all along (prior to Super Tuesday). And they haven't written it off because they desperately need a big win (and I mean 10% or more) to stop Obama's momentum.
If not Virginia, then where? Soon they'll be talking about how they "expected" Obama to win Wisconsin. On March 4, the string will finally run out because if they don't win big then they are through.
The game here is delegates, not expectations. You can't get the nomination if you don't get the delegates. Saying you didn't "expect" to win a contest doesn't change the fact that the delegates are all going to other guy.
If you intend to win the nomination people "expect" you to win contests. Just ask Rudy Giuliani about the importance of winning as opposed to managing expectations about your losses.
Clinton needs to start winning. Soon. She can't wait until March 4. We'll see very shortly if her efforts in Virginia paid off.
4. Posted by Larkin
| February 12, 2008 6:53 PM |
Score: 0 (2 votes cast)
Posted on February 12, 2008 18:53
5. Posted by Lee Ward | February 12, 2008 8:02 PM | Score: 0 (2 votes cast)
"If that's the case then why has Hillary been campaigning so hard in Virginia? Bill Clinton's been all over the state too. Why waste him on an election that can't be won?"
It's a proportional primary, Larkin. Of course they'll try to win 'some' delegates even though they know they won't win the primary.
Come on... that was a trick question, right? You knew that...
"The answer is that they "expected" to win Virgina all along (prior to Super Tuesday). And they haven't written it off because they desperately need a big win (and I mean 10% or more) to stop Obama's momentum."
There you go again, making up what Clinton's camp is thinking so you can shoot holes in them - lol...
Ohh, they're "desperate" - lol... If that makes you happy, you go ahead and believe that.
... but still no pony, and the pile is getting larger.
5. Posted by Lee Ward | February 12, 2008 8:02 PM |
Score: 0 (2 votes cast)
Posted on February 12, 2008 20:02
6. Posted by mantis | February 12, 2008 8:06 PM | Score: 1 (3 votes cast)
I used to edit political campaign TV ads
Well that explains why you're such a nasty character who's primary purpose is to constantly distort and demonize an opponent. You are all spin and dishonesty, Lee, and you are clearly very desperate now. I can't possibly see how you could support Obama after he wins the nomination.
Looking forward to hearing about how everyone expected Obama to win Wisconsin. And if he wins Ohio or Texas, we'll see how desperate you can get. Maybe you'll find another toothless prostitute video on youtube!
6. Posted by mantis | February 12, 2008 8:06 PM |
Score: 1 (3 votes cast)
Posted on February 12, 2008 20:06
7. Posted by Larkin
| February 12, 2008 8:16 PM | Score: 0 (2 votes cast)
Maybe you'll find another toothless prostitute video on youtube!
Classic. I've always said you should be writing for Wizbang mantis.
7. Posted by Larkin
| February 12, 2008 8:16 PM |
Score: 0 (2 votes cast)
Posted on February 12, 2008 20:16
8. Posted by Steve Crickmore | February 13, 2008 7:03 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Hillary speaking in El Paso last night:
If that is Hillary's new campaign message, it is going to have all the effect of a damp squip.
8. Posted by Steve Crickmore | February 13, 2008 7:03 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 13, 2008 07:03
9. Posted by Steve Crickmore | February 13, 2008 7:41 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
After her speech in El Paso, Hillary gives a local competent-sounding audio podcast interview..says she is "ahead in delegates" and is "a problem solver".
9. Posted by Steve Crickmore | February 13, 2008 7:41 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 13, 2008 07:41
10. Posted by Lee Ward | February 13, 2008 9:48 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
"I can't possibly see how you could support Obama after he wins the nomination.
There's obviously a lot you can't possible see, mantis, but that isn't my problem, it's yours.
10. Posted by Lee Ward | February 13, 2008 9:48 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 13, 2008 09:48
11. Posted by mantis | February 13, 2008 1:47 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I assume you'll take cues from your tactical, if not idealogical, brethren on the right who are now turning around and heralding McCain as a true conservative and a worthy nominee. That's pretty much what you'll have to do if Obama is the nominee and you support him as you say you will. Of course, the twelve people who read your posts will remember what you really think of him (or what you're willing to say about him, anyway).
11. Posted by mantis | February 13, 2008 1:47 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 13, 2008 13:47