Advantage Obama in Delegate Count Projection (Wizbang Politics)

I've plugged some better numbers into my spreadsheet to calculate the likely end result in pledged delegate totals for the Democratic race. For each state I am using polling data if available. If there's no polling data then I look at the results from neighboring states and special factors such as whether the race is a caucus or a primary.

Here are my estimated outcomes for each state. First the expected Obama wins and the percentages:

Democrats Abroad: 60-40
Guam: 60-40
Hawaii: 58-42
Indiana: 52-48
Mississippi: 60-40
Montana: 58-42
North Carolina: 50-40
Oregon: 60-40
South Dakota: 62-38
Vermont: 52-48
Wisconsin: 52-48
Wyoming: 64-36

And the Clinton wins:

Kentucky: 57-43
Ohio: 59-41
Pennsylvania: 58-42
Rhode Island: 56-44
Texas: 54-46
West Virginia: 58-42

And finally Puerto Rico which I'm calling a toss-up.

With these estimates the final count in pledged delegates would be:

Obama: 1760
Clinton: 1660

I'm making the following assumptions about each race. Feel free to poke holes in my logic:

Democrats Abroad: figuring organization matters here. Advantage Obama.
Guam: this is a convention so again organization should make the difference for Obama.
Hawaii: two advantages for Obama: home state and caucus. No polling data.
Indiana: no polls; more affluent than surrounding states; slight Obama advantage
Kentucky: using Tennesse results as a proxy
Mississippi: highest black population in the country; Alabama as a proxy
Montana: using Idaho and Utah as proxies that went for Obama
North Carolina: one recent poll
Ohio: average of recent polls
Oregon: using Washington as a proxy but with a smaller margin since it's a primary
Pennsylvania: average of recent polls
Puerto Rico: this is a caucus but obviously heavily Latino; no clue
Rhode Island: average of recent polls
South Dakota: using North Dakota as a proxy
Texas: average of recent polls (one came out today with Obama ahead)
Vermont: using Maine and New Hampshire as proxies
West Virginia: seems like a state tailor made for Clinton demographically
Wisconsin: average of recent polls
Wyoming: this is a caucus; Obama is strong in the mountain states

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Comments (2)

Until Hillary somehow can s... (Below threshold)

1. Posted by Steve Crickmore | February 15, 2008 3:40 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

Steve Crickmore:

Until Hillary somehow can stop the hemorrhaging? Every day, for the last 10 days the national tracking pulls have showed a steady Hillary decline..Here is the Gallup poll and the Rasmussen Reports poll...She must win first one state somewhere before she has a chance to win any more- full stop.. I don't count her out but it seems whenever Obama goes into a state to campaign he has moved the voters hard his way..even in California and Masschusettes, where he lost, he just seemed to run out of time...now he has a little more of it... without such a tight schedule as Super Tuesday demanded.

Posted on February 15, 2008 15:40

I agree Steve. What we are... (Below threshold)

2. Posted by Larkin | February 15, 2008 4:56 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

Larkin

I agree Steve. What we are seeing in the national polls should soon start showing up in the Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania polls. There's a definite trend here towards Obama and it's hard to see how Hillary can stop it.

I fully expect the Ohio and Texas gaps to close after Obama campaigns there as well. There are two weeks between next Tuesday's Wisconsin/Hawaii contests and March 4. Plenty of time. And we know he's got plenty of cash to bombard the airwaves.

So right now, my projection is probably more optimistic for Hillary than the final results will be.

Wisconsin and Hawaii will be instructive. Hillary has a real shot in Wisconsin that's why she's going there this weekend. She desperately needs to slow him down there.

Posted on February 15, 2008 16:56