Hillary Clinton is rapidly becoming the Mike Huckabee of the Democratic Party. A candidate who has no chance to overtake the frontrunner in terms of delegates but who continues to hang on anyway for reasons that escape me.
ARG has a new Texas poll out:
Obama: 50%
Clinton: 42%
Hillary needs wins of 25% or more in Ohio and Texas just to start on the path of catching up to Obama in the delegate count. In Ohio, a new poll shows that her lead has dwindled to 8 points:
Clinton: 47%
Obama: 39%
Rhode Island is something of a bright spot for Hillary according to Rasmussen:
Clinton: 53%
Obama: 38%
Of course, we have seen large leads for Hillary evaporate in the final days before. And any victory for her in Rhode Island will be offset by an Obama win in Vermont:
Obama: 57%
Clinton: 33%
Plugging all the latest polling data into my spreadsheet I come up with the following for the final pledged delegate count:
Obama: 1695
Clinton: 1519
That's an advantage of 176 for Obama. Hillary would have to capture 61% of the superdelegates just in order to break even with Obama. While she currently has a lead in superdelegates it has been dwindling over the past few weeks.
All of which leads me to conclude that she has no real chance and pronounce:
Hillary is the new Huckabee.
(Hey, they're both from Arkansas too.)
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2008 Presidential Race
Tags: Democratic presidential campaign, Hillary the new Huckabee
Comments (6)
Frankly, I want Hil and Oba... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Glenn Koons | February 25, 2008 1:26 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Frankly, I want Hil and Obama to eat each other alive. I want supporters firing back at each other. I want all their ideas up for inspection. Keep Hil in so she can destroy the Convention. These are both liberals who deserve to be destroyed. Let them.Pubs should finally realize that they have enemies across the aisle and letting Hil stay in helps the Pubs to win.
1. Posted by Glenn Koons | February 25, 2008 1:26 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 25, 2008 13:26
2. Posted by sam | February 25, 2008 2:03 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Well, Obama is not going to get the needed delegates either. Why should Hillary drop out? Let them fight out at the convention with MI/FL and superdelegates.
Your analogy with Huckabee breaks down on one crucial point: McCain is going to win he required number of delegates outright, regardless of Huckabee's presence. In fact, he is at about 1050 or so at this time, and will probably close out the deal next Tuesday when he should easily gain no less than 225 out of the 265 delegates up for grabs.
2. Posted by sam | February 25, 2008 2:03 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 25, 2008 14:03
3. Posted by Larkin![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangpolitics.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| February 25, 2008 2:34 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Why should Hillary drop out?
Because Obama will have the most delegates, will have won more than twice as many states as Hillary and already has gotten a million votes more than she has.
Obama: 10,302,582
Clinton: 9,378,355
So probably the most basic reason that she should drop out is because Democrats prefer Obama.
3. Posted by Larkin![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangpolitics.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| February 25, 2008 2:34 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 25, 2008 14:34
4. Posted by sam | February 25, 2008 3:06 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
None of the above matter. The rules say that a candidate needs 2025 delegates to get the nomination. Nobody has reached 2025 yet, have they?
4. Posted by sam | February 25, 2008 3:06 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 25, 2008 15:06
5. Posted by Jay Tea | February 25, 2008 5:20 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
This is really, really unfair of you, larkin.
Huckabee, at least, has a sense of humor about his situation -- see last week's SNL.
Hillary... god only knows what she's thinking.
And pity the poor bastard who has to tell her it's over. They'll be lucky to survive.
J.
5. Posted by Jay Tea | February 25, 2008 5:20 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 25, 2008 17:20
6. Posted by Alan Orfi | February 25, 2008 10:11 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Idiotic comparison.
6. Posted by Alan Orfi | February 25, 2008 10:11 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 25, 2008 22:11