The people running the Clinton campaign seriously need to have their heads examined:
Minutes after [Obama strategist] Plouffe's call concluded, the Clinton campaign sent out a memo, noting that the Obama camp had vastly outspent them in the four states voting next Tuesday. If Obama were unable to win all these states with all this effort, "there's a problem."
So let's see. Obama has won 23 states overall while Hillary has won just 11. He's won 1 million more popular votes in these contests than Hillary has. He has a 155 delegate lead in the pledged delegate count and a 105 delegate lead if you include superdelegates. Based on my projections using the latest polling data he will end up with a 180 delegate lead in pledged delegates when all the contests have completed. He's won 11 consecutive contests and he's leading in all of the national polls including the Rasmussen daily tracking poll which has him up 47-42% and the Gallup daily tracking poll which has him up 49-42%. And in general election matchups against John McCain he has consistently equaled or outperformed Hillary.
So how can it be possible that if Obama fails to win all four states on March 4 he has a "problem"? This has to be the most deceptive and pathetic attempt to spin expectations for an upcoming series of contests that I have ever seen. It illustrates the depth of the Clinton campaign's desperation as it thrashes about in it's death throes.
Thankfully, there are plenty of us out here in the blogoshpere willing to set the record straight. The reality is that Clinton needs victories of 25% or better in Ohio and Texas just to begin the process of climbing back to parity in the pledged delegate count. Vermont and Rhode Island are frankly too small to matter very much at this stage of the game and will likely cancel each other out anyway (with Obama winning Vermont and Clinton winning Rhode Island).
In the week following March 4 we have Wyoming which is a caucus and Mississippi which has a 30% black population and both look very good for Obama. After that, Pennsylvania is the biggest prize and Obama is closing the gap there. North Carolina is the second biggest and he leads by a good margin in the polls for that state. In the remaining contests, Clinton might do well in Indiana and Kentucky, but that would be offset by Obama's advantages in Montana, South Dakota and Oregon.
The bottom line is that 50-50 ties in these big states or even Clinton victories of 5 or 10 points just don't get her back to parity. If she fails to achieve big victories in these states she will have to get around 65-70% of the remaining superdelegates to throw their support behind her.
All Obama has to do is hold her close to even in the remaining contests and he will come out on top. That's not spin; it's mathematical fact.
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Filed under:
2008 Presidential Race
Tags: Democratic presidential campaign, expectations game, Hillary Clinton
Comments (12)
As long as Hillary keeps ru... (Below threshold)1. Posted by sam | February 29, 2008 4:59 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
As long as Hillary keeps running, Obama cannot win. Mathematical fact. That's what happens when you set up your primary system to reward even those who never win. Then you set up superdelegates to do whatever they want to do.
Why do we want the fun to end? All the way to Denver, and then I want the Dems to choose a consensus candidate (who better than Walter Mondale?)
You go, girl!!
BTW, how about the new Hillary ad? "Who do you want to protect the country?" Why, John McCain of course. Hahahahaha!!!
1. Posted by sam | February 29, 2008 4:59 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on February 29, 2008 16:59
2. Posted by Larkin![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangpolitics.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| February 29, 2008 5:34 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
As long as Hillary keeps running, Obama cannot win. Mathematical fact.
Is that the new math?
You need 2,025 delegates for the nomination. Based on my projections, Obama will have 1,700 pledged delegates when all the contests are over. He already has about 200 superdelegates which gets him to 1,900.
So then he needs 125 more. There are 363 superdelegates still uncommitted so he will need just a little over 1/3 of those. He likely pull in quite a few more than that.
2. Posted by Larkin![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangpolitics.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| February 29, 2008 5:34 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 29, 2008 17:34
3. Posted by sam | February 29, 2008 6:45 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Based on my projections, Hillary will have 5000 pledged delegates by Saturday...
The superdelegates don't have to do anything till Denver...all the superdelegates can go to Hillary in denver, and there is nothing you or Obama can do...
3. Posted by sam | February 29, 2008 6:45 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 29, 2008 18:45
4. Posted by sam | February 29, 2008 6:48 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
1900 does not equal 2025.
My point exactly...as long as Hillary keeps running, Obama cannot get the delegates needed to win before Denver...
4. Posted by sam | February 29, 2008 6:48 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 29, 2008 18:48
5. Posted by Larkin![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangpolitics.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| February 29, 2008 7:01 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
My point exactly...as long as Hillary keeps running, Obama cannot get the delegates needed to win before Denver...
Wrong again. Superdelegates can decide to back whoever they want whenever they want.
all the superdelegates can go to Hillary in denver
Yeah, now that's really likely isn't it?
Sayyyyyy, you wouldn't be a Republican would you????
5. Posted by Larkin![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangpolitics.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| February 29, 2008 7:01 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 29, 2008 19:01
6. Posted by Scrapiron | February 29, 2008 9:30 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
There is no way Shrillary can outspend B Hussein Obama. He has a never ending supply coming from his pals in the Islamic world. He has 'send me money' sites in a lot of countries and people say you can't buy the presidents office. Just watch it happen.
6. Posted by Scrapiron | February 29, 2008 9:30 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 29, 2008 21:30
7. Posted by 914 | February 29, 2008 10:44 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Hillarys squad better do something quick before the islamic funders pick the Democratic nominee.
Barack Hussein Obama, the candidate for change. yeah, change to sharia law.
7. Posted by 914 | February 29, 2008 10:44 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on February 29, 2008 22:44
8. Posted by Jim Addison | March 1, 2008 1:05 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Super delegates can indeed decide who to back before the convention - but they can also change their minds as many times as they wish before actually casting their votes.
In fact, even most of the "pledged" delegates are under no legal obligation to vote for the candidate to whom they are pledged.
Now, it is certainly the case that Obama appears set to end the primary season "on top" in the pledged delegate count, but it is also true he will almost certainly not have the 2025 required.
The convention is in late August, nearly six months from now. A lot can happen in that length of time. What possible reason would Hillary Clinton have to withdraw before then? If she loses the nomination, by Election Day few will remember or care whether she withdrew in March or at the convention.
8. Posted by Jim Addison | March 1, 2008 1:05 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 1, 2008 01:05
9. Posted by Steve Crickmore | March 1, 2008 7:21 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
It looks like were all wrong.... It would appear it will not be Texas, Ohio or the GOP grandees but tiny Rhode Island which will be Hillary's last hope for a firewall. "No state in America has been better for me or our family," said (Bill) Clinton a Obama has a big rally in Providence today planned, at 1:30 pm.
9. Posted by Steve Crickmore | March 1, 2008 7:21 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 1, 2008 07:21
10. Posted by Aaaron | March 1, 2008 11:18 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
It's a really close race and if you were Hillary you probably wouldn't want to give up just yet...I'm not for or against either really though. As a gamer I try to keep an open mind.
10. Posted by Aaaron | March 1, 2008 11:18 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 1, 2008 11:18
11. Posted by mantis | March 1, 2008 5:27 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I think "sam" might be Giuliani's campaign manager.
11. Posted by mantis | March 1, 2008 5:27 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 1, 2008 17:27
12. Posted by Larkin![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangpolitics.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| March 2, 2008 1:07 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
What possible reason would Hillary Clinton have to withdraw before then?
If she persists to the convention in what will almost certainly be a losing battle she would certainly damage Obama's prospects of winning in November. That will not win her any friends in the Democratic Party and she would destroy her chances of getting the nomination sometime in the future.
12. Posted by Larkin![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangpolitics.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| March 2, 2008 1:07 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 2, 2008 01:07