I have no doubt that in about 8 hours from now Hillary will be staging a victory celebration and screeching about how she is the new "comeback kid". The Clinton spin team will be working the media and claiming that she is on an unstoppable path to the nomination .
What they won't be doing, however, is actually counting the delegates. Because if they did, they wouldn't have any reason to celebrate. Using the Real Clear Politics polling averages of the expected outcomes tonight here's how many delegates Hillary will net in each state:
Ohio: +11
Texas: +2
Rhode Island: +3
That gain of 3 in Rhode Island should be neatly erased by Obama's win in Vermont leaving Hillary with a grand total net gain on the night of 13 delegates.
Yes, that's right. After all the furor and tumult and hurling the kitchen sink at Obama she's likely to walk away with a net gain of just 13. That would shave Obama's lead in the total delegate count (including superdelegates) from 113 to a perfect 100. That's hardly the sort of game-changing, earth-shattering sort of move that Hillary will be pretending it is in a few hours.
Adding to Hillary's woes are reports that Obama has a list of 50 superdelegates who are ready to endorse him as reported by Tom Brokaw. If this is true it will certainly take the wind out of any sails that Hillary is trying to puff up.
The bottom line, as I've said many times before, is that Hillary needs huge blowout margins in Ohio and Texas to turn this thing around. In a few hours, we will see if she can pull it off.



Comments (14)
Momentum, baby!It ... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Howard Dean | March 4, 2008 3:44 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Momentum, baby!
It does not matter if Hillary nets 0 delegates today. If she wins TX and Ohio, even by 1 vote each, it is a different race.
Neither Obama nor Clinton get the delegates needed to clinch the nomination before Denver.
Superdelegate count remains fluid till Denver. Intense pressure on SDs to (1) stick with delegate lead, or (2) exercise their role as independent votes.
Fight over MI and FL delegates (thank you, Charlie Crist!), including lawsuits.
In any case, bad situation all around...if Hillary gets nod, blacks sit home...if Obama gets nod, defections of Latino, Catholic and Jewish voters from the plantation.
How sweet it is!!!
1. Posted by Howard Dean | March 4, 2008 3:44 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on March 4, 2008 15:44
2. Posted by Baggi | March 4, 2008 4:05 PM | Score: 0 (2 votes cast)
I thought Hillary got out of the race last Friday, as reported here first several days prior to that?
You mean she's still in the race?
2. Posted by Baggi | March 4, 2008 4:05 PM |
Score: 0 (2 votes cast)
Posted on March 4, 2008 16:05
3. Posted by Baggi | March 4, 2008 4:07 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Oh yeah, here it is:
Someone whom I know intimately, who has top level national media and political connections, contacted me just now to say "I last evening dined with X, and X tells me Hillary is planning to quite the race day after tomorrow, Friday."
3. Posted by Baggi | March 4, 2008 4:07 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on March 4, 2008 16:07
4. Posted by Glenn Koons | March 4, 2008 4:23 PM | Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
The Rush babies voted for Hil today in Tx. and man, can you see the confusion in the DNC? I love it. The more blood spilt, the better it is for the USA and the GOP. It means Hildabeast stays in the race and frustrates the Messiah. My even some Reagan Dems might arise again to vote for ole John and even some House reps. I love to see the leftist media now forced to question Obama.
4. Posted by Glenn Koons | March 4, 2008 4:23 PM |
Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
Posted on March 4, 2008 16:23
5. Posted by Howard Dean | March 4, 2008 4:25 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Open question: who is taking the Larkin suicide watch tonight?
5. Posted by Howard Dean | March 4, 2008 4:25 PM |
Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on March 4, 2008 16:25
6. Posted by Jayemay | March 4, 2008 4:45 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Does anyone know if Hillary still leading in the over-all cumlative popular vote amongst primaries. Last I saw she was, but that was before the Wisconsin round of primaries. If she does, I'm sure the Clintonites will trot that one out to try to woo super-delagates.
6. Posted by Jayemay | March 4, 2008 4:45 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 4, 2008 16:45
7. Posted by Larkin
| March 4, 2008 5:09 PM | Score: -2 (2 votes cast)
Jayemay - Obama still leads in the popular vote count.
Baggi - that was one of your favorite right-wing radio hosts Jay Severin. I was merely passing along his (now obviously unfounded) rumor.
7. Posted by Larkin
| March 4, 2008 5:09 PM |
Score: -2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on March 4, 2008 17:09
8. Posted by bryanD | March 4, 2008 6:15 PM | Score: -1 (1 votes cast)
I think Obama will sweep all 4 states. Admittedly based on some wishful thinking. And the Rush-is-a-jinx rule.
Consider this my $20 at long odds on the frickin Jets.
8. Posted by bryanD | March 4, 2008 6:15 PM |
Score: -1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on March 4, 2008 18:15
9. Posted by Steve Crickmore | March 4, 2008 7:33 PM | Score: -1 (1 votes cast)
First exit polls from all states are looking better for Obama, than the pollsters predicted. Your bet is a long shot bryanD but one never knows? My bet is that commander-in-chief 3;00 am ad, though it appealed to males seeking a authority figure it may have turned off many women..Let's hope someone calls her at 3:00 to give her the news.. It's all over! There must be alot of Bill Richardsons out there who realize what she is doing to the party and likely to continue doing with her unceasing negative attacks.
9. Posted by Steve Crickmore | March 4, 2008 7:33 PM |
Score: -1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on March 4, 2008 19:33
10. Posted by Larkin
| March 4, 2008 7:40 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
It's all over!
Let's hold off the celebrating until we have some solid results. The exit polls certainly look encouraging but they've been wrong before. It's good that no one is calling Ohio for Hillary at this point. I am assuming that means the margin of victory won't be significant which is a win for Obama.
10. Posted by Larkin
| March 4, 2008 7:40 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 4, 2008 19:40
11. Posted by Lee Ward
| March 4, 2008 8:37 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
An Ohio win for Clinton is a win for Obama? Meds... the man needs meds. I thought you guys were keeping an eye on him?
If Obama loses just one state after winning 11 in a row it signals a turn of momentum in favor of Clinton, and she'll ride it all the way to the convention floor.
11. Posted by Lee Ward
| March 4, 2008 8:37 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 4, 2008 20:37
12. Posted by Steve Crickmore | March 4, 2008 8:44 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Even if Hillary manges to eke out a couple of close victories tonight, things still look bleak for her..She can only try and bring Obama down to her level, but after D day he has still many solid advantages including a heavy infusion of even more campaign money, the next two upcoming Obama friendly country primaries to start a new winning streak, and a large bank of new superdelegate endorsements.
12. Posted by Steve Crickmore | March 4, 2008 8:44 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 4, 2008 20:44
13. Posted by Lee Ward
| March 4, 2008 9:35 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Naturally there will be spins from both sides of the Democratic race, but with Obama out fundraising and out spending Clinton by 2-1 -- if that kind of spending results in a loss in either Ohio or Texas for Obama it is indicative of a significant momentum shift in Clinton's favor.
and they just announced that Clinton won in Rhode Island (53%-46% currently) even though she was heavily outspent there.
Huckabee's dropping out -- I was impressed by the few minutes of his speech announcing the same.
13. Posted by Lee Ward
| March 4, 2008 9:35 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 4, 2008 21:35
14. Posted by Howard Dean | March 4, 2008 11:04 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Ohio called for Clinton, and she is pulling ahead in Texas. Is Larkin still with us, or has he jumped off he ledge? Is he calling for Obama to bow out of the race (by Friday)?
14. Posted by Howard Dean | March 4, 2008 11:04 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on March 4, 2008 23:04