Clinton has been declared the winner of Rhode Island and Ohio by the networks. I'm declaring her the winner of the Canada primary as well. Even though they have no delegates up north it looks like the curveball that they threw Obama just days before the Ohio election did some serious damage. You've got to hand it to those crafty Canucks. They knew the right time to make a splash in favor of the wife of the man who negotiated NAFTA.
Based on the current numbers the delegate gains for Clinton look to be as follows:
Ohio +23
Rhode Island +4
and for Obama:
Vermont: +4
Texas is still to close to call so it's probably safe to assume those delegates are going to be split roughly between the two candidates.
Updating my numbers for all the future races I'm projecting that Obama will finish with 109 more pledged delegates. This estimate includes the following margins of victory for Clinton:
Indiana: 16%
Kentucky: 16%
W. Virginia: 16%
Pennsylvania: 10%
and Obama margins of victory:
Mississippi: 20%
South Dakota: 20%
Wyoming: 20%
Montana: 16%
North Carolina: 10%
Oregon: 10%
Giving Clinton a 20% margin of victory in Pennsylvania shrinks Obama's delegate lead to 94. Clinton needed a much bigger margin in Texas tonight and it doesn't appear she'll get it. Obama is still on track for securing the nomination and should pad his delegate lead with wins in Wyoming and Mississippi later this week.
So who's really the big winner tonight? Why, John McCain of course. And not because he clinched the Republican nomination. A continuation of the divisive Democratic primary campaign is the gift that keeps on giving for McCain.
Permalink | Send To A Friend | Linking Blogs | Digg this!
Filed under:
2008 Presidential Race
Tags: Democratic presidential campaign, Ohio, Texas
Comments (6)
With Michigan and Florida, ... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Howard Dean | March 4, 2008 11:34 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
With Michigan and Florida, nobody has any lead. With less than a 100 delegate lead, and with no one getting the majority, it would be stupid for either candidate to drop out of the race. Get ready for blood-bath in Denver.
1. Posted by Howard Dean | March 4, 2008 11:34 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 4, 2008 23:34
2. Posted by Howard Dean | March 4, 2008 11:41 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
You can number-crunch all you want, and move percentages around till November and beyond, but it doesn't change the reality that both Obama and Clinton are not going to give up, and are going to tear the Democratic Party apart. That is what happens when George Soros takes over the party. Remember Ned Lamont.
2. Posted by Howard Dean | March 4, 2008 11:41 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 4, 2008 23:41
3. Posted by Howard Dean | March 4, 2008 11:59 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
The sweet irony is, it is the Republicans who are screwing with the Dem elections. And will continue to do for the rest of the primaries, not letting either Clinton or Obama get the majority delegates needed to close the deal, and pushing to get a brokered convention in Denver. Al Gore, start your engines.
3. Posted by Howard Dean | March 4, 2008 11:59 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 4, 2008 23:59
4. Posted by Jim Addison | March 5, 2008 3:23 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I think Limbaugh's move interfering with the Democratic nomination is just wrong. I don't think partisans should ever cross over to vote in the other party's primaries to mess up their process. Let each side choose their own candidate . . . of course, in states without party registration, or with liberal rules on changing registration, it is impossible to stop.
Canada didn't throw Obama a curve at all. It was his response to the memo on the conversation between his senior economic adviser and Canadian diplomats that caused his problems. First, his campaign denied such a meeting ever took place. Then, they claimed Goolsbee was acting as a U of Chicago professor, not representing the campaign. Puh-leeze! Goolsbee isn't a dean and no academic subjects were discussed!
Now it is down to "misquoting" Goolsbee's words, but there were no quotes in the memorandum at all. And when reporters ask questions, Obama runs away.
4. Posted by Jim Addison | March 5, 2008 3:23 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 5, 2008 03:23
5. Posted by Larkin![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangpolitics.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| March 5, 2008 9:54 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
With Michigan and Florida, nobody has any lead.
Michigan and Florida don't count. The only way they could matter is if they have a re-vote.
5. Posted by Larkin![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangpolitics.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| March 5, 2008 9:54 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 5, 2008 09:54
6. Posted by Lee Ward![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangpolitics.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| March 5, 2008 11:57 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
If, 30-45 days from now, redoing the Florida primary has the potential to give a candidate enough delegates to gain the nomination with pledged delegates alone, and allow the Democrats to avoid a brokered convention in the process, I suspect there will be strong pressure to make that happen.
If the second Florida primary results don't decide the race, re-holding the Michigan primary becomes the next step.
6. Posted by Lee Ward![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangpolitics.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| March 5, 2008 11:57 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 5, 2008 11:57