I don't want to rain on the Clinton parade but a substantial and big win in Texas? Currently she has outgained Obama 93-92 by one lonely delegate from her Tuesday Texas victory. She outgained Obama by same amount in America Samoa, one delegate, 2-1: by the same logic, has America Samoa become another big and significant Clinton victory, in retrospect.

By the way, I also also anticipate that her one delegate lead in Texas to evaporate when the final caucus numbers are posted, later Thursday afternoon. But then I 've noticed numbers as well words don't particularly matter to the Hillaryites.

If Hillary comes out on the short end of the delegate count in Texas, after winning the primary by over 3%, then she does have an argument with the super-delegates that the pledged delegate system is flawed. She should have earned between 6-10 more delegates in Texas.

If I was Hillary I would be in WY now working hard to win that caucus. By Sunday I would be in MS for nonstop campaigning. I think that what has hurt HRC was that the sense of inevitablilty led to her not working as hard as Obama in smaller states and caucus states. The one consistant factor I have found in 2008 has been that if you don't take a state seriously, then your numbers in that state fall off the table.

HRC cannot ride a bounce from Tuesday into WY and MS without serious campaigning. She will get clobbered (especially in MS) if she is perceived as skipping those states in favor of PA.

My take is that she must keep Obama's lead close to 100 before PR in June. Because, PR is the only winner take all contest on the Dem calendar. She will pick up 55 delegates versus zero for Obama if she wins PR. Then on to the redo of MI and FL.

If She cheats by forcing Mich. and Fla. to redo, will she still come out as the Bounced Leader? Perhaps she will be seen rightly as the conniver she is. Or, perhaps some event will show the public that both Dems are just socialist pacifist and not ready to protect the nation and all these polls will be moot. It depends too on whether McCain can grab the economic issue while these two bash each other to death. How delicious.

I love it when people who have no understanding of mathematics at all start arguing numbers.

The truth is that if Obama had the numbers, it would be over. The only number that counts is 2025, the number needed to nominate. He doesn't have the numbers.

Now, you can look at them from this way and that, put them in a hat and shake 'em up, stand on your head, and do your very best "objective" figuring, but the one thing you CANNOT do is make them come up to 2025. Sorry.

People should also remember the difference between "constants" and "variables" is that constants never change while variables are able to. And every single delegate to the Democratic Convention, "pledged" or not, is a "variable."

~~~~~

Glenn ~ I don't think a "redo" in MI and FL is Hillary "cheating" at all. She already WON those states, so a redo gives Obama a second chance in them. Of course, Florida says the DNC should pay for a revote, at a cost of $25 million, which I can't see them doing in this new era of no "soft money" for the parties.

Jim: I understand mathematics well enough. Being a CPA. Of course neither will reach 2025 by the convention. But with the MI and FL redo the 2025 number will be higher. Assuming the delegate count is break even or slightly in HRC's favor then Obama will not have the delegates to win on the first ballot without super-delegates.

I wonder if the super-delegates want to go to a second ballot? Then all pledged delegates become a variable and all bets are off. Can you say Al as is Gore?

Doing too many tax returns today. I meant the results of the FL & MI redo will slightly favor HRC is the delegate race. Either way, neither has the pledged delegates to win on the first ballot.

Whether the super-delegates want a second ballot Jim, I don't know. What is your opinion on the odds of a second ballot?

MikeN ~ I was actually referring to our Obamaniacs who, in their desperation to "prove" Hillary cannot possibly win, forget that Obama can't possibly win without hundreds of super delegate votes, either.

I am unsure whether the 2025 will go up if/when MI & FL are seated, or if the number included their full delegations from the start - I'll need to check on that. But with or without those delegates figured into the majority, the nearly 800 super delegates mean neither candidate in a competitive two-man race could forge a majority without substantial numbers of them.

I doubt a second ballot will occur, as I suspect if either candidate can get close to the magic number they will attract enough additional support among the "supers" to avoid that. However, as Democratic strategist Bob Weiner pointed out today, FDR wasn't nominated to the fourth ballot in 1932, and Wilson needed 46 to win in 1912, so it's hardly the end of the world if does go to extra ballots.

Jim: It is Mark not Mike, with all due respect to my brother-in-law. BTW, my father-in-law's name is Jim. Or as they call him in Alabama "jimma."

Scratch my idea of a redo in FL. Hillary just vetoed the whole thing. She blames the Republicans for forcing the primary in January. She clains the DNC should seat the FL delegation per the January primary result. Hello train wreck.