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Obama Pulling Away from Clinton Nationally

Despite all the media hype about Hillary's surge of momentum the last few weeks, during which she actually fell further behind in the delegate race, the national tracking polls are indicating that Obama is starting to pull away.

Gallup:

Obama: 50%
Clinton: 44%

Rasmussen:

Obama: 50%
Clinton: 42%

This is the first time Obama has scored 50% in this poll.

Given their growing deficit in the delegate race the Clinton campaign has been arguing that Hillary's victories in the larger states mean that she would be a better general election candidate against McCain. The only problem with that argument is that polling data like this one on the contest for California don't consistently support that conclusion:

California
Clinton 46
McCain 39

Obama 53
McCain 38

This is a state that Clinton won by 10%.

Each candidate has strengths and weaknesses with a variety of constituencies. Obama and Clinton can both put different states into play in a general election but at the end of the day it's pretty much a wash. SurveyUSA's massive 50 state poll came up with these remarkably similar electoral college projections:

Clinton 276
McCain 262

Obama 280
McCain 258

As I have said dozens of times, there's simply no convincing data that indicates Hillary would be the better general election candidate while there's plenty of evidence suggesting Obama might be. In particular, people should pay attention to what swing-state Governors, Senators and Congressmen are saying:

Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska said Obama, unlike Clinton, stands a chance of winning at least part of his state, which has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1964 and is one of two states that award some presidential electoral votes by congressional district rather than winner-take-all.

"Obama has coattails in Nebraska,'' said Nelson, who endorsed his Senate colleague two months ago. "Our internal polls show he can win one, possibly two, congressional districts.''

Obama has also won the endorsements of swing-staters like Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano, Iowa Governor Chet Culver, Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill, North Dakota Senator Kent Conrad, South Dakota Senator Tim Johnson, and Virginia Governor Tim Kaine. Some of these politicians are up for re-election in 2008 and they are siding with Obama because they clearly believe he will be the strongest candidate at the top of the ticket.

Day by day, Hillary Clinton's rationales for why the superdelegates should hand her the nomination over Barack Obama are dwindling away.


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Comments (8)

Just put everyone that endo... (Below threshold)
Scrapiron:

Just put everyone that endorses the racist Hussein Obama in the America hating sack with the black KKK leader Revrund Wright.

I guess you missed Obama's ... (Below threshold)

I guess you missed Obama's response on this:

Let me say at the outset that I vehemently disagree and strongly condemn the statements that have been the subject of this controversy. I categorically denounce any statement that disparages our great country or serves to divide us from our allies. I also believe that words that degrade individuals have no place in our public dialogue, whether it's on the campaign stump or in the pulpit. In sum, I reject outright the statements by Rev. Wright that are at issue.

When a Hillary supporter in... (Below threshold)
Steve Crickmore:

When a Hillary supporter in Ohio said that he wouldn't vote for Obama because of his race...Hillary's response was "everyone has a right to free speech"..This is one of so many instances where she doesn't concede anything in her first response. When she goes back and consuts with her handlers they usuually get it right for her..But she is not an instinctive politician..Obama is..Hillary is interested in solely in power, not politics. You have noticed that almost no one ever praises her, even her supporters, it is just tearing down Obama..The polls are showing this that her whole persona is so inauthentic as her campaign. There are so many different Hillary's that it is hard to really get behind one of them since they are going off on so many different directions.

ScrapironIt is so ... (Below threshold)
joni:

Scrapiron

It is so obvious how racist you are. I am sure that very few if any of us have the opportunity to name ourselves. We simply have to live with what our parents have to offer.

Hilliary, Bill, an Ohio supporter, Ferraro, and many others are racists and shows it openly. Obama didn't inject race into the campaign. The Clintons did and then tried to hide their hands.

To ridicule a person's name when they themselves did not create it, is about as racist as it comes.

We should be leaders in the world and show a level of intelligence.

Ben Nelson is totally nuts ... (Below threshold)
The Exposer:

Ben Nelson is totally nuts if he thinks a radical leftist like Obama can win Nebraska in a general election.

Larkin, since you are so mu... (Below threshold)
sam:

Larkin, since you are so much hung up on polls, I am sure you will update your post with today's Rasmussen numbers, won't you?

Face it, Obama is done, and Hillary brought him down. As soon as Maggie Williams took over the campaign, the attacks on Obama sharpened, and you can see the results.

Just wait for the PA primary results, where over 80% of white vote will go to Hillary. You'll see the racial tensions accelerate then, and will culminate in full-scale race riots in August. Couldn't happen to a nicer party.

There is only so much you can achieve by your Audacity of Hate, no matter how much you hide your true leanings. With Pastor Wright and Michelle Obama on your side, the balck nationalist Africa-centric Cook County hack coes into full view. As I said earlier, the Supers are watching.

Larkin, Just so yo... (Below threshold)
sam:

Larkin,

Just so you don't have to undertake the disagreeable task of looking up Rasmussen when the numbers don't look good, I'll give it to you:

"It's Obama 46% Clinton 45% (see recent daily results). This reflects an unusually sharp change from yesterday's results when Obama led by eight points and reached the 50% level of support for the first time." Let me add that, since this is a running 4-day average, you can imagine Hillary's numbers for Friday.

Also,

"It's McCain 47% Obama 42% and McCain 46% Clinton 42% (see recent daily results)...Obama has a three-percentage point edge over McCain among unaffiliated voters but is currently supported by just 65% of Democrats. By way of comparison, McCain earns the vote from 80% of Republicans." By the time the elections roll along, Obama will be lucky to supported by 30% of Democrats.

Also, if you have the stoma... (Below threshold)
sam:

Also, if you have the stomach, check out today's Zogby:

Mar 13-14, 2008

McCain 45%, Clinton 39%

McCain 44%, Obama 39%




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