Where oh where are all the superdelegates who Hillary Clinton thinks are going to flock to her and hand her the nomination? Here's what NBC's Chuck Todd has to say on the subject:
By our count, the Clinton campaign hasn't publicly announced the support of a new superdelegate since just after February 5. Indeed, since Super Tuesday, Obama has gained 47 new superdelegates, while Clinton has lost seven (including Eliot Spitzer). Does Clinton have a bigger problem on the superdelegate front than folks realize? Why do we think party leaders -- who saw the Democrats lose governorships, state legislatures, and the control of Congress during the Clinton years -- suddenly jump on board the Clinton campaign? Isn't this the reason the Clinton campaign has only been able to keep uncommitted supers from climbing board Obama's bandwagon but they haven't been able to woo a new super to their side in a month? ? Isn't this also an explanation for why the Clinton campaign has done so poorly in the caucuses? The caucuses are made up of the activists who follow this stuff closer and think about things like electability and who can help the party keep Congress, etc. If Clinton's not winning over caucus activists, why should we believe she'll win over a large enough chunk of superdelegates to overcome Obama's pledged delegate lead? Ultimately, her best chance is to convince supers that Obama is completely unelectable on par with McGovern, an argument that might have been helped a tad by Rev. Wright.
Here's a graph that shows how Hillary's lead in superdelegates has been shrinking from demconwatch:

You would think that with all of the much-heralded "momentum" that Hillary has gained from her Ohio and Texas "victories" (she really lost Texas) that the superdelegates would be beginning to turn her way. In fact, they haven't because Hillary failed on March 4 to do what everyone knew she had to do in order to turn this race around: win BIG in Ohio and Texas.
So now we have to see a continuation of the race until Hillary's next self-declared firewall of Pennsylvania has had a chance to vote (you see only Hillary gets to define which states are important in this contest). She won't get the margin of victory she needs to make the race competitive, but the media will declare that she's making a comeback (again) and the race will continue on.
There's an odd confluence of forces right now that are coordinating efforts to keep the Democratic race going. On the one hand, we have the media who would desperately love to see the fight continue to the convention where they can bring us the gory details live and in color. That would be fantastic for their TV ratings and helps to keep them employed (something everyone is worrrying about these days).
The other group behind this effort are the right-wingers who desperately want to derail Obama and hand the nomination to Clinton. Instructed by Rush Limbaugh, their motivation is to ensure a prolonged battle on the Democratic side that ultimately hands Hillary the nomination since they reason she is much more beatable than Obama.
Then there are the Clinton loyalists. These people are embittered and angry that Obama came out of nowhere to outmaneuver Hillary at every turn to the point where he is in the driver's seat for the nomination. They will stop at nothing to slime and destroy Obama without even the slightest consideration of how robbing Obama of the nomination would fracture the base of the Democratic Party and destroy our chances in November.
Politics makes for some strange bedfellows doesn't it? Rush, the liberal media, Bill and Hillary all on the same side. Thankfully, the superdelegates aren't going along.



Comments (4)
Larkin, there is another ta... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Steve Crickmore | March 17, 2008 3:32 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Larkin, there is another tactical problem with Hillary's civil war' tactics that I hadn't fully appreciated..It is not only the erosion of super delegate support, but she is begining to lose the respect of those Clinton ordinary caucus delegates that were pledged to her..Let's not forget these people are still Democracts and many of them are politically aware and can't be too proud of what they are witnessing..She lost one pledged caucus delegate in Iowa on Saturday to Obama. Maybe this will have a snowball effect. Here is another Washington caucus formerly a Clinton delegate who is now leaving her. He gives his reasons why she has crossed the line and is now pledging his support for Obama.
1. Posted by Steve Crickmore | March 17, 2008 3:32 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 17, 2008 15:32
2. Posted by Baggi | March 17, 2008 4:22 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Are you all living in a cave?
Delegates and Super Delegates do not matter to Hillary. It's her turn. She will be the next President.
Why do you continue to resist her?
2. Posted by Baggi | March 17, 2008 4:22 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 17, 2008 16:22
3. Posted by Jim Addison | March 17, 2008 6:04 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Obama supporters have withdrawn into their own little world where the only thing that counts is the pile of shiny pebbles (delegates) they have amassed. They will not countenance mention of the fact their impressive pile is not the required size to claim the prize. They refuse to accept the reality that many of the delegates may have minds of their own and be wary of the utter collapse of Obama's campaign at the first serious rough patch.
This Bizzaro-world of denial in which they live ill prepares them for the possibility of disappointment at the Convention. Forget they didn't have a majority of delegates, they "won more than the Monster" did, and will claim some new sort of "right" to the nomination.
If it is denied them, their little worlds will come crashing down upon them. I wouldn't want to be on the streets of Denver when that happens.
"No justice, no peace!" as they say . . .
3. Posted by Jim Addison | March 17, 2008 6:04 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 17, 2008 18:04
4. Posted by sam | March 17, 2008 8:03 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Ever since Hillary managed to stay alive after TX and OH, I have been saying that she has a better chance for the Dem nomination than Obama, if the pledged delegate gap remains around 100. (If Obama was ahead by, say, 300 the SDs would not dare overturn that. About 100 is fair game.) As a super-delegate, here's what you will see in June, once the primaries are over:
(1) Pledged delegate gap: 100
(2) Popular vote: Hillary slightly ahead (with FL/MI adding about 500,000 - PA adding 300,000 difference)
(3) Obama's last big win was in February (WI). "What have you done for me lately?"
(4) A more vivid race gap (wait till you see the race divisions in PA and NC - I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary wins the white vote 80-20 and Obama wins the black vote 95-5 in these two states)
(5) Tons of big donor and union pressure (especially in PA, OH, MI) on SDs and DNC to go with Hillary. As you have perhaps seen, arm-twisting has already begun on the retail level.
(6) Obama with his messiah-image stripped off
Hillary knows this, that is why she is still in the race. The nomination will not be decided by virtue of a few delegates this way or that.
4. Posted by sam | March 17, 2008 8:03 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 17, 2008 20:03