« Battle of Florida and Michigan Nearing an End | Main | How do you Know When Someone has Obama Derangement Syndrome? »

Will Wright Cost Obama the Presidency?

I know there are a lot you who hope that the controversy over Reverend Jeremiah Wright will cost Obama the presidency but I think you're wrong and here's why.

First off, the contest for the Democratic presidential nomination is effectively over at this point. Obama has a lead of over 100 delegates and it's likely to be around that same level when all the primaries are over with. Re-votes in Florida and Michigan are effectively dead which will deny Hillary the opportunity to make up any significant ground with those states. The deal that emerges will ignore the prior primary results and likely split the delegations 50-50 so they have no overall impact on the race.

Hillary's hail mary longshot of having the superdelegates hand her the nomination is now even more unlikely because of the Wright controversy. If you thought there would be a civil war before if the superdelegates robbed Obama of the nomination he has already won just imagine what it would be like now. To deny a man the nomination because of his church is even more outrageous than denying him the nomination because of some absurd idea that only certain states (e.g., Ohio, New York, California) should matter in the nomination process and the rest should be ignored.

If the superdelegates were to cave in to the right-wing noise machine and their Clintonista comrades-at-arms it would absolutely fracture the party and destroy any chance of winning in November. Many African-American Democrats would see the theft of the nomination from Obama because of his choice of a church as a direct affront on them and their style of religious worship. In short, it's just not going to happen.

Now that the nomination is settled, the real question is whether the Wright controversy will cost Obama a victory in the general election. Dick Morris spells out the likely reasons why Obama stayed in the Trinity church:

Wright's rantings are not reflective of Obama's views on anything. Why did he stay in the church? Because he's a black Chicago politician who comes from a mixed marriage and went to Columbia and Harvard. Suspected of not being black enough or sufficiently tied to the minority community, he needed the networking opportunities Wright afforded him in his church to get elected. If he had not risen to the top of Chicago black politics, we would never have heard of him. But obviously, he can't say that. So what should he say?

Makes perfect sense to me and I think more people will come around to this conclusion eventually as well. Morris goes on to provide a roadmap for Obama:

While he lets this fact sink in, he needs to continue to distance himself from Wright by characterizing that kind of anger and animosity as a thing of a generation past. He needs to compare the progress of which whites are proud in discarding the racism of our forebears with his own pride at being a post-racial candidate. He needs, again and again, to reject what Wright says and emphasize his belief in America and the validity and morality of the American Dream.

As the controversy matures, he can increasingly depict those who fan its flames as trying to live in the past and re-fight the civil wars of race that have divided America.

I would add that the current saturation coverage this controversy is getting guarantees that people will be more than tired of it by November. Had this all come out in late September it could very well have cost Obama the presidency. We've seen in the past week how his polls have dipped. But now it's all out there and it gives Obama the opportunity to present himself as a healer of the racial divide in this country and repeatedly emphasize his Christian faith.

  • Currently 2.6/5
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Rating: 2.6/5 (10 votes cast)


Close

Email this entry to:


Your email address:


Message (optional):


AddThis Feed Button

Comments (16)

"Had this all come out i... (Below threshold)

"Had this all come out in late September it could very well have cost Obama the presidency."

Thats exactly why Obama must be presented from getting the nomination.

Obama would have happily let this issue stay in the dark corners of his campaign even though he knew the political ramifications Wright presented over a year ago.

What other skeletons has Barack been hiding from the American public? And why in the world would we want to wait until he's got the nomination to find out?

Second, the racial and political divide among Democrats is indicative of Obama's failure to deliver on his great promise of unifying the nation. I thought Obama claimed he was a great uniter? When is he going to start actually demonstrating some of those abilities, instead of just talking about it?

If he can't even unify Democrats, why assume he can unit the nation, mush less flaming regions like the middle east? It's just more ObamaBullshit.

Barack Obama has failed to demonstrate any unifying abilities, as is indicated by the chasm within the Democratic party today. It's nothing but talk - the man cannot deliver - and in fact, he just makes matters worse.

Barack Obama has failed ... (Below threshold)

Barack Obama has failed to demonstrate any unifying abilities, as is indicated by the chasm within the Democratic party today.

And Hillary IS a uniter?

What you're saying is nonsense. We have a competitive political system and Hillary had the party establishment behind her. Therefore, it's not been easy to kill her off but he has just about done it.

Lee wants a united party du... (Below threshold)
mantis:

Lee wants a united party during a primary. What a moron. Guess what, idiot? Clinton hasn't united the party either. I guess she's nothing but talk too - the woman cannot deliver - and in fact, she just makes matters worse.

The party unites after a nominee is chosen. Look at how the Republican talking heads, who almost universally hated McCain, have been rallying behind him. Obama and Clinton are both more well liked in their party during the primary than he was.

I see from your recent posts that you've fallen back on your old troll behavior, running around screaming liar as loudly and as often as you can. What a child.

Yes.Obama has to c... (Below threshold)
austin:

Yes.

Obama has to carry the battleground states like FL, OH, IN, IA, and MI - states which Hillary dominated and which McCain leads in the polls and whose Hillary-supporting moderate Democrats will split for McCain given Obama as an opponent.

Furthermore, polls on Wright-Obama such as the following show that

Wright & Obama State by State

It's just more ObamaBull... (Below threshold)

It's just more ObamaBullshit.

And another thing Lee. Can the profanity over here or I'll have you banned. We have higher standards at Politics than what you've dragged Blue back down to.

Well I'm glad to see the ev... (Below threshold)

Well I'm glad to see the events of the last week has rocked the Obama supporters. This little pity party is

Therefore, it's not been easy to kill her off but he has just about done it.

"kill her off" - Wow, and here I thought it was just politics.

And no mantis, I don't expect a united primary full of Obama Kumbaya goodness, that's the type of fantasies the Obama supporters keep weaving...

But keep up the attacks on me and anyone else who disagrees with you guys, and make sure you do all you can to "kill" Hillary, Larkin lol!

Psstt - Austin nailed it.

larkin, i think you are opt... (Below threshold)
ke_future:

larkin, i think you are optomistic that obama has wrapped up the nomination. clintion is in it to the convention, and as obama continues to mis-step, there is a real possiblity that it might cause the super delegates to break her way. i'm not saying that it is probable or even likely, but it is within the realm of possibility.

and this really hurts obama, and the democrats in general, for the general election in november. you're airing all of your dirty laundry and the divisions within the party. everyone is now seeing that identity politics is what the democrats stand for, and a lot of independent voters don't like that.

plus, mccain can stand up on the podium and say that he has crossed the partisan line to get things done, point to a lot of concrete examples and then ask the question. "if obama can't even reach across the line within his own party, how does he think he'll do that with the republicans?" and there goes one of obama's cherished lines.

"Obama would have ... (Below threshold)
langtry:
"Obama would have happily let this issue stay in the dark corners of his campaign even though he knew the political ramifications Wright presented over a year ago."

As I have before, I find myself shocked to completely, utterly, agree with Lee Ward. Our politics are quite different, but I couldn't have written my reasons down without plagarizing his response. Well said all the way around!

Stunning leadership there, ... (Below threshold)

Stunning leadership there, eh?

Obambi's answer? - make another speech of course - and throw his white grandmother under the bus in this one.

He's a brilliant guy, no question - but he's not very smart. There's a difference.

I'm sure Obama's speech ful... (Below threshold)

I'm sure Obama's speech fully satisfied his supporters, most of whom didn't see any need for the speech in the first place, and of course the fawning press corps. But he failed to answer any of the key questions, or even to address them. Instead, he made a weak case for moral equivalence and spoke at length about race in America, which was merely an attempt to change the subject.

There remain over five months before the convention is gaveled to order. It's a lot of time to try to nurse a small lead by running out the clock.

The Obama supporters keep telling us, over and over and over again, that the race is over and Hillary has no chance, that Obama has won the nomination or cannot be stopped from winning it. One suspects if they really believed that, they would be a touch less frantic in their urgency to repeat the point.

In fact, Obama's best chance lies in getting the public support of enough super delegates to convince Hillary she can't win, but he needed to have accomplished that before all his problems began surfacing. Since Texas and Ohio, he's had to contradict three top advisers, sacking one of them, on bedrock policy matters. His connections to indicted Tony Rezko have been revealed as more extensive than previously acknowledged, as has the amount of money Rezko raised for him. And his old friend and adviser is exposed as a racist, America-hating, wacko.

Why would a super delegate commit to Obama right now? Wait and see seems the more prudent policy, just in case there are more bombshells waiting to drop.

I predict Oprah to reinforc... (Below threshold)
bryanD:

I predict Oprah to reinforce Obama's front lines. (Oprah and Obama are both parishioners of Wright's church)

Princess Caroline Kennedy will re-materialize to put the Whammy on Hillary via an Actors' Studio-style sit-down across media with Obama. Perhaps on Oprah's teevee show.

Rush L. will join Hannity and Gibson in declaring himself no longer a Republican, but "Independent".

Jim Addison,Don't ... (Below threshold)
sam:

Jim Addison,

Don't fret, when the PA primary results will show Obama not even getting 20% of the white vote, Obamaniacs like Larkin will still say that Obama has the nomination locked up.

Hillary winning PA by 15% and the white vote by 40% will convince the superdelegates that they should line up behind Obama.

Check out the latest poll from NC, Obama leading by 1 point. When he loses the NC white vote by 40%, the superdelegates will stampede towards Obama.

Come June and the SDs realize that Obama has not won a single state since Febraury, the SDs will be ecstatic about his chances with the white vote.

But hey, it's their party, thy can cry all they want to.

Hillary winning PA by 15... (Below threshold)

Hillary winning PA by 15% and the white vote by 40% will convince the superdelegates that they should line up behind Obama.

The idea that Hillary gets to pick the states that are important, and when she wins them say "see...because I won this state I should get the nomination" is laughable. No one's buying it; certainly not the superdelegates.

She said Texas was important and then Obama got more delegates than she did there. She said Ohio was important and then Obama more than made up her 9 delegate gain in Mississippi, Wyoming and at the Iowa conventions.

A 15-point win in PA might net her about 20 delegates which will still leave her way behind. I've said before Hillary's only path to the nomination is through a civil war that fractures the party. She should do the right thing and step down now so the party can unite and take the fight to the Republicans.

Obambi's answer? -... (Below threshold)
SCSIwuzzy:
Obambi's answer? - make another speech of course - and throw his white grandmother under the bus in this one.

Well, at least he doesn't cry when the going gets rough like your candidate does, Lee :)

Larkin, are you a retard th... (Below threshold)
sam:

Larkin, are you a retard that cannot comprehend wriiten English?

"A 15-point win in PA might net her about 20 delegates which will still leave her way behind."

Did I say anything about delegate lead? You are stuck on the 100-or-so delegate lead that Obama maintains. If that was important to the Democraic Party, they would have closed the race by now and awarded the nomination to Obama. All the SDs would have lined up behind him by now. The fact that they have not tells you all you need to know, stupid.

This nomination is not going to be decided by your spreadsheet. Talk to me when Obama keeps losing the white vote by 30-40% in every primary. The Supers are watching.

And no mantis, I don't e... (Below threshold)
mantis:

And no mantis, I don't expect a united primary

No?

If he can't even unify Democrats, why assume he can unit the nation,

It's just more bullshit lies from a lying bullshitter bullshit lies lies lies! Liar!

/Lee Tard




Advertisements






rightads.gif

beltwaybloggers.gif

insiderslogo.jpg

mba_blue.gif

Contact

Send e-mail tips to us:

politicstips@wizbangblog.com

Categories

Monthly Archives

Wizbang Politics Blogroll

Credits

Publisher: Kevin Aylward

Editors: Jim Addison, Bill Jempty

All original content copyright © 2007 by Wizbang®, LLC. All rights reserved. Wizbang® is a registered service mark.

DCMA Compliance Notice

Powered by Movable Type 3.35

Hosting by ServInt

Ratings on this site are powered by the Ajax Ratings Pro plugin for Movable Type.

Search on this site is powered by the FastSearch plugin for Movable Type.

Blogrolls on this site are powered by the MT-Blogroll.

Temporary site design is based on Cutline and Cutline for MT. Graphics by Apothegm Designs.

Site Meter