Ever since March 4 when Hillary failed to make the kind of breathrough she needed in Ohio and Texas, the talk from the Clinton camp has focused on their strategy for stealing the nomination from Barack Obama who will end up with a majority of the pledged delegates when all the primaries have finished. They are basing this strategy on persuading the superdelegates that Barack Obama will be unelectable in a general election and that the only states that should count in the Democratic primary contest are those states that Hillary has won (the rest should be ignored).
For the superdelegates the choice is clear: either cast their lot with the candidate who has won the majority of delegates, the majority of states and the majority of popular votes or with the candidate who has not. Either accept the will of the people or overturn it thereby risking a civil war that would fracture the party's base and infuriate the party's core African-American constituency.
Part of the equation the superdelegates would be wise to consider is the very real possibility that if Obama were denied the nomination he could strike out on his own and mount a third-party bid. Over the length of this campaign, Obama has constructed a formidable, grass-roots organization with a huge donor base of over 1 million individuals. These people are dedicated, loyal and some would say fanatic to the core. Their organizing skills have been on display throughout this campaign where Obama has trounced Hillary in nearly ever caucus that has been held.
These people aren't simply going to link hands with the Clinton supporters and sing kumbaya if she somehow manages to steal the nomination that Obama has already rightfully won. They could easily break ranks with the Democrats and jump through the necessary hoops to get Obama's name on the ballot in the 50 states. The Obama campaign would also likely be able to raise more money than either Clinton or McCain by drawing on its huge base of donors who have contributed over the Internet.
A three-way race would be interesting to say the least. It's too bad the Republicans didn't nominate someone like Romney who would almost surely lose a three-way race. Instead they nominated McCain who has proven ability to draw support from Independents and some Democrats. Obama likewise has the ability to draw from a broad range of the political spectrum: far-left activists, educated suburbanites, moderate Republicans, independent voters, African-Americans and younger voters without a strong party affiliation.
Hillary Clinton is the one who would be left out in the cold in a three-way race. Her base of support is the narrowest of the three drawing primarily from working class Democrats. She has extremely limited ability to pull independent voters and virtually zero appeal to Republicans. My guess is that Hillary would come in third behind McCain and Obama in a three-way contest.
Just a little something here for the superdelegates to consider as they make their fateful decision in the coming weeks.
Permalink | Send To A Friend | Linking Blogs | Digg this!
Filed under:
2008 Presidential Race
Tags: Barack Obama, Democratic presidential campaign, Obama third-party
Comments (5)
larkin, obama has not clinc... (Below threshold)1. Posted by ke_future | March 20, 2008 10:21 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
larkin, obama has not clinched the democratic nomination yet, he doesn't have the delegates yet.
if clinton can convince the superdelegates to vote for her, it's not stealing the nomination. the superdelegate system was set up so that they could vote for who they thought would be the best candidate.
i think it's a silly system. but it was put together by silly democrats. there is NO requirement on who the SD's can vote for. they could vote for Lieberman or for Zel Miller if they wanted, and that would be perfectly within their right.
frankly your constant attempts to hand obama something he hasn't won yet is getting tiring. even if i am enjoying the spectacle of identity politics eating a party rotten to the core.
personally, the longer this goes on the better. it will show the independents and blue dog democrats that neither clinton nor obama have the skills to be president.
what would be great is if it would also finally end the fucking stupid identity politics that the democrats engage in that is pulling this country apart.
1. Posted by ke_future | March 20, 2008 10:21 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on March 20, 2008 22:21
2. Posted by Larkin![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangpolitics.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| March 20, 2008 11:55 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
if clinton can convince the superdelegates to vote for her, it's not stealing the nomination.
I think that's a matter of opinion. You may not think it's stealing but I do and, what's more important, the vast majority of Obama supporters will think it is as well.
If there's only a difference of a few dozen in the pledged delegates then I wouldn't call it stealing. The way things stand now I think it would be.
2. Posted by Larkin![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangpolitics.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| March 20, 2008 11:55 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 20, 2008 23:55
3. Posted by Scrapiron | March 21, 2008 1:36 AM | Score: -1 (1 votes cast)
Hussein is really an idiot. He's demanded everything concerning Shrillary including a pain of her jockey shorts to check how much her gonaids have stretched them and how her fart stains smell and then complains that someone looked at his passport records. What else is this 'looking more and more like' radical Islamist hiding? Didn't anyone bother to dig a little deeper on the Revrund Wright and find that his advanced degree concentrated on 'Islam'? So the hate every whitey was natural for the revrund and Hussein.
3. Posted by Scrapiron | March 21, 2008 1:36 AM |
Score: -1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on March 21, 2008 01:36
4. Posted by Jim Addison | March 21, 2008 3:11 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Obama has the funding base to run a third-party campaign, and the volunteer organizers. But why on earth would he do it?
Most third party candidates fail to win a single Electoral Vote, which are the only ones which count. The most they ever seem to achieve is to assure the election of the candidate of the party they didn't leave - as in the Bull Moose in 1912, George Wallace in 1968, Ross Perot in 1992. The only exception I can recall is the Dixiecrats of 1948, who made no difference at all in the end.
So, Obama would be running against the tide of history as an independent, and simultaneously sabotaging the Democratic nominee's chances, which could only hurt his future in the party if he returned. Sounds like a suicide mission to me. The guy is in his early 40s, smart, good political instincts, and a mega-database of small donors. He doesn't have to be in a hurry. Maybe a full term or two in the Senate, or a term as Governor of Illinois (if, of course, it was successful, but fortunately the bar has been lowered on that to just staying out of jail) to weaken the "experience" argument against him, and he could easily win - assuming he hadn't deserted the party years earlier.
4. Posted by Jim Addison | March 21, 2008 3:11 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 21, 2008 03:11
5. Posted by Larkin![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangpolitics.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| March 21, 2008 9:43 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I think it was Michele Obama who said they weren't going to run again. So this would be his only shot. Not sure if that's true or not.
Obama surrogates would be wise to float the idea through back-channels I think. Just another lever to pressure the superdelegates with.
5. Posted by Larkin![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangpolitics.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| March 21, 2008 9:43 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on March 21, 2008 09:43