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Evan Bayh Comes up with Another way to Determine the Democratic Nominee

Vice Presidential candidate Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana has come up with yet another method for deciding the Democratic presidential nomination:

He suggested that they consider the electoral votes of the states that each of them has won.

"So who carried the states with the most Electoral College votes is an important factor to consider because ultimately, that's how we choose the president of the United States," Mr. Bayh said on CNN's "Late Edition."

"But ultimately, you know, if you look at the aggregate popular vote, and as we all recall in 2000, to our, as Democrats, great sorrow, we do elect presidents based upon the Electoral College."

What Senator Bayh happily ignores is the fact that many of the states with the most electoral votes are not going to be battleground states in the general election so it's frankly irrelevant who won them in the primaries.

This whole game of inventing schemes to decide who gets the nomination is becoming absurd at this point. So far, we've heard all of these schemes:

  • Popular vote total (excl. Florida and Michigan)
  • Popular vote (excl. Michigan)
  • Popular vote total including caucus estimates
  • Number of states won
  • Number of big states won
  • Number of battleground states won
  • States with the most electoral votes

But why not consider these too:

  • Popular votes cast on Tuesday (since the November general election will be held on a Tuesday)
  • Popular votes of states whose names have an even number of letters (since even is symmetric and odd is not)
  • Popular votes of states north of the Mason-Dixon line (because no one really knows where the Mason-Dixon line is)

Cameron Fredman has come up with a few more:

  • Total number of "yellow" states on Wikipedia's map of the United States
  • Total number of Commonwealths (i.e., Virginia, Massachusetts)
  • Total number of "New" States (i.e., New Hampshire, New York)
  • Average Highest Elevation
  • Average Official State Mixed Drink

Ultimately, this is all becoming ridiculous. How about if we just stick with the scheme that was agreed to before this contest began?

That outlandish and perverse scheme is based on who wins the most delegates in all of the primaries and caucuses. The superdelegates should take into consideration that, since the contest was about delegates from the beginning, that the candidate with the most pledged delegates is probably the better candidate (truly a shocking idea).

The reason is that the pledged delegate contest involves a number of factors all of which are crucial to winning in November:

  • Popular vote
  • Organization skills (as demonstrated in the caucuses)
  • Fundraising ability

All of these are key to winning in November and Obama has outperformed Hillary on each one of them. That's why he has an unassailable lead in pledged delegates. So maybe rather than inventing new schemes at every turn we should just consider the results of the contest whose rules were agreed upon at the very beginning.

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Comments (11)

How self serving? I'm sure... (Below threshold)
COgirl:

How self serving? I'm sure Hillary will support this latest scheme. I wonder what position Bayh has been promised in her administration.

Don't you just love the hypocrisy here? Didn't Hillary want to abolish the electoral college after the 2000 election?

The democrat candidate will... (Below threshold)
Scrapiron:

The democrat candidate will be 'selected' by the millions of dollars the 'I'm not an Islamist' can collect from the Islamic countries. That plus the failure of the 16 year love affair with the Ark criminal clan. I can't imagine how low a democrat must feel when they turn on they're own 'family'. Actually I can't feel it but I can laugh until my sides hurt.

Don't you just love the ... (Below threshold)

Don't you just love the hypocrisy here? Didn't Hillary want to abolish the electoral college after the 2000 election?

That's a good point. I had forgotten about that one. You would think they would think about these talking points before they start to run with them.

I'm not sure what position Evan Bayh will get but it's clear that he's bored with being the Senator from Indiana. He'd love to be VP but I doubt he could deliver Indiana to the Democrats so that may be a mark against him.

As far as I can tell, he's pretty much of an empty suit.

here's a novel idea larkin.... (Below threshold)
ke_future:

here's a novel idea larkin. how about the SD's vote for who they think will make a better president? isn't that what they are supposed to do?

Exactly Ke_future. The sup... (Below threshold)
P. Bunyan:

Exactly Ke_future. The superdelegates can support whomever they want for ANY reason.

My question is:

Right now Larkin is saying "How about if we just stick with the scheme that was agreed to before this contest began?", but what will he be saying in August when that actually happens and Hillary gets the nomnation?

I'm just going to throw thi... (Below threshold)

I'm just going to throw this out there...

Will Hillary sue if she's not the nominee?

(Sue who? I dunno...Obama, the DNC, Bill, Monica, Sinbad, the voters...someone)

how about the SD's vote ... (Below threshold)

how about the SD's vote for who they think will make a better president?

That would be fine with me because if they do that Obama would win.

The reason is that in pledged delegates Obama is ahead 52-48%. That's a pretty good measure of each candidate's support among the voters (mostly Democratic along with some independent and a few Republican).

If superdelegates used the same criteria as the voters they should come up with (roughly) the same conclusion. Even if they titled towards Clinton 55-45 Obama would still win because that wouldn't close the gap for her.

In other words, if the criteria is to choose who would be the best president there's no basis for the superdelegates coming to a conclusion that is wildly divergent from what the voters have decided (excluding of course the emergence of some career-ending scandal for Obama).

RE: Larkin #7,What... (Below threshold)
P. Bunyan:

RE: Larkin #7,

What you wrote would be true if, and only if the demographics of the superdelegates matched the demographics of the primary voters. They don't. It not even close.

About 50% of the superdelegates are white men. How well did Obama score with that group again?

What percentage of the superdelegates are cluess college kids (who overwhelmingly supported Obama in the primaries)? Oh, about 0%.

Comparing the superdeleages to the primary voters is like comparing apples to oranges. Were it not, there'd be no purpose for superdelegates.

Well, if Democrats are goin... (Below threshold)

Well, if Democrats are going by their own rules, it takes 2025 delegates' votes to be nominated. "Unassailable lead" or not, Obama doesn't have those votes.

Now, I know some people think they are entitled to things they haven't earned. It's not like if you want to buy a house out of your price range, some bankrupt friend with show up suddenly with half a million to buy the side lot for you. Well, it happens to some people, I'm sure.

If Obama wants to sew this up, he needs to have rock-solid commitments for 2025 votes lined up before the end of June. That will be tough, because super delegates can change their minds at any time, as many times as they wish, and there is no particular reason they would make their decisions early (if they haven't already).

But if he hasn't got it nailed down shortly after the final contests, he will have a hard time doing it at all. If it gets to the convention, the odds of Hillary winning increase dramatically. Which she knows, of course, making it unlikely she'll drop out.

If it's a stalemate at the convention, Gore becomes a factor.

Oh dear God, save me from a... (Below threshold)
Danielle in Indiana:

Oh dear God, save me from another 5 weeks of the Ken & Barbie of the DLC blowing through town on the Wonderbread express. Sen. Bayh is a Dino and Sen. Clinton is Evan Bayh in a pantsuit.

The sad thing is, he's sold out his long-held beliefs that the Electoral College should be eliminated just to shill for Hill.

Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. Obviously so does the quest for Power.

If it's a stalemate at t... (Below threshold)

If it's a stalemate at the convention, Gore becomes a factor.

If it goes to the convention they might as well nominate Dennis Kucinich because there's no chance in heck they are going to win if that happens.

Everyone knows that you can't have a contentious convention in this day and age. It's supposed to be a boring five-day infomercial. Surely the superdelegates must know this and understand that they need to choose up sides sometime soon.




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