The only hope for Pubs is to keep this race going. Keep the chaos going so that Obama and Hil actually eat each other's young(their supporters and so called pledged delegates). I pray this thing goes to the Convention and we see 1968 replayed all over again. I am very disappointed that the RNC and old John have not taken advantage of this chaos. Instead, John blathers about the EU, the UN in foreign policy and now needs Mitt to aid him in understanding our economy. C'mon, let the Stupid Party(the GOP) finally wake up and defeat the Evil Party(the Dems).

I couldn't find it this week (I guess it's only available to premium members at this time), but last week Rasmussen had a link to a table showing the favorable/unfavorables for the 3 candidates.

While McCain's unfavorable rating (around 40%) and Clinton's unfavorable rating (around 51%) were fairly steady over the last several months, Obama's had climbed significantly. It started out in the hig 30's, but as of last week it was equal to Clinton's 51 or 52% unfavorable rating. Isn't politics all about trends?

So to answer Larkin's question: "So what more evidence do the superdelegates need at this point to make their decision?

The more people learn about Obama, the more they view him unfavorably. While McCain beats either fellow traveler in head to head match-ups, Obama's trend is downward, while Clinton's is steady. I believe that that will be enough for the superdelegates to give the nomination to Clinton. Sorry Larkin.

Then how can you explain why Obama keeps trending up as in the Gallup daily poll?

For every poll that shows Obama trending down I can show you two that show him going up.

Either way, there's simply no convincing data to show that Hillary runs stronger against McCain and plenty of data that suggests Obama will.

For a super delegate, there are sound reasons to wait. Obviously, Obama wasn't vetted at all, by his party backers or the press. He lied about Wright, he lied about Rezko. There was more to his relationship with both than he first admitted.

Who knows what else is out there? Since we now know that Obama reveals only what he must, and only when it is about to come out anyway, the fact that his people are pushing so hard to resolve the nomination right away probably means there are more shoes to drop.

Besides, who knows what Michelle will say next?

:-D

I found it.

Actually Clinton's gone up a little since last week too, so while the majority of the American electorate views both fellow travelers unfavorably, Obama is a little better. Lol. But the trend is still worse for Obama.

The Gallop poll you linked to looks pretty flat to me.

"the fact that his people are pushing so hard to resolve the nomination right away"

Kinda like:

"The debate is over! The science is settled!"

lol

Check the Pew Poll I just added to the post.

Like I said, plenty of evidence that Obama is the stronger candidate and little that Clinton is.

I don't think Obama has more skeletons in the closet,(I hope not). That's one advantage of not having been around so long. And he has alwys admitted that Wright was a family friend and his pastor. It is the first thing he said in the introfduction in his best-selling book, 'The Audacity of Hope', I believe. The youtube sound bites were taken largely out of context but I think this a good time for them to come out now. So I'm not so much of the persuasion that Hillary has been voted off the island and should go just yet (but I wouldnt be sorry if she did), but I don't think she should be acting as a surrogate for McCain by boosting McCain's so called experience against Obama's. That Obama doesn't need, neither do the Democrats and McCain has his own handlers like Lieberman to act as his pointman and guide dog.

Sometimes you wonder what people spend their time doing on the internet? Check out this poll from Ramussen Reports..

22% of Democrats Want Clinton to Drop Out; (o'kay but)...
22% Say Obama Should Withdraw..(that makes a lot of sense)

and this too...

The national telephone survey also found that 85% of all Democrats--and 87% of all voters--believe it is at least somewhat likely the Democratic nomination will remain unresolved until the Democratic convention in August

I'm not sure there exists a "context" under which most Americans would find Wright's remarks like "America's chickens coming home to roost" as an explanation of 9/11, or dismissing the WTC as "and we worry about a couple of towers," or "G*d D*MN America," or "Italian garlic noses" either reasonable, understandable, or acceptable.

It's quite likely, in fact, that the more the "context" of Wright's philosophy is "explained" to America, the more Obama's campaign will suffer.

Possibly the bigger risk to his chances will be a close examination of the attitudes of his foreign policy team towards Israel.

Re: polls . . . in PA, PPP has Obama losing the white Democratic vote 63-23%; Quinnipiac has it 61-33%.

Following similar numbers from recent contests in Texas, Ohio, and Mississippi, super delegates have to consider how many blue states could become vulnerable to McCain when they would rather be targeting the red states Democrats might win.

Not only are national polls unreliable seven months before the election, the national numbers only provide fodder for conversation because we elect Presidents through the Electoral College.

"..that's seven out of eight Democrats or voters and I thought Lee represented a distinct minority thinking that the convention in August in Denver would decide the nomination."

I felt my ears burning....

About two months ago I saw the race tightening to the point where it would be decided by the superdelegates - and that's proven out to be the case. There's now a move afoot to try to get their decision before the August convention, and I think it's misguided. I hope Clinton resists tooth and nail -- just as strongly as Obama resisted the primary do-overs in Michigan and Florida.

One, Obama will survive the bloodletting that is taking place, and what doesn't kill him will make him stronger. The more dirt that's dragged out now, the less ammo the Republicans will have come November. I don't think we've seen the last of the dirt against Obama, and the Pennsylvania primary is still weeks away.

Two, the party will survive the bloodletting and come together - no question. Witnessing Larkin's daily hand-ringing and brow sweat is humorous, but has no basis in reality.

Obama is in the lead so it's no surprise Obama supporters are trying to steal the nomination by having Clinton roll over and quit. Seeing Nancy Pelosi - who marshalled the failure of the promise of the 2006 election by being wholly ineffectual for the last two years trying to hold onto her speakership by kissing Obama's butt is another example.

Three months, September - November, is plenty of time to bury John McCain's chances to win the election. If the superdelegates form a consensus before the convention fine - a decision is a decision no matter when it's made, but the more ObamaTrons resist letting Americans voice their opinion, the more that folks like me cheer Clinton on to carry the fight to the convention floor.

Obama needs to "win" the nomination in order to unite the party behind him. If he gets the nomination any other way, as soon as the going gets tough and the Republicans start forming good reasons to choose McCain over Obama then Obama's support will begin to wither.

Obama, and his supporters, need to stop alientating Clinton Democrats. It's another example of just how ineffectual Obama is as a united and leader for one thing, but it'll cost the Democrats the White House. I find it amazing that most of the loudest sycophants can't figure that out.

Addison: "Possibly the bigger risk to his chances will be a close examination of the attitudes of his foreign policy team towards Israel."

Very true. Obama represents a major shift in US policy towards Israel, he just hasn't been honest with Democratic voters about it so nobody is aware of it, but it will turn votes against him in November. I agree this is one of Obama's major vulnerabilities at this point.

Obama has said he supported the Israeli invasion of Lebanon,(and bombing of Beirut I imagine).I recall Lee, you did as well, much to the surprise of Wizbang readers. I was pretty admanant, as you may recall, one of the few on that blog, who said it was dumb thing to do. If Obama supported the invasion of Lebanon,(even now)I don't think the Israelis have much to fear.

For Hillary to get to the convention and have chance a lot of things without any major setbacks would have to fall her way..I don't see it.

I think Hillary will face enormous pressure to pull out after May 6th by the party grandees when she does relatively poorly in the Indiania and the North Carolina primaries, and all can see further erosion of the super delegates slipping away from her. This is when her supporters, particularly Bill will convince her to bow out.

Just picture, if you will, this idea for an ad by some Republican organization that opposes B. Hussein Obama. Snippets of Reverand Jeremiah A. Wright sermons from the DVD's sold by his church in which he states, which gesturing wildly, "not God bless America, but God damn America". Then cut to a picture of an Obama tax return indicating his donations to that church. I predict a landslide for McCain that will make Reagan's 1984 victory look puny.

It won't be a landslide, but McCain has an excellent chance of defeating Obama, that's true.