The conventional wisdom holds that Hillary can't take the lead in total popular votes cast before the convention, because she would need to win nearly 60% of the remaining vote to do it. However, due to the demographics involved, it is still at least conceivable she might achieve it. This analysis assumes she wins big in PA, Obama takes NC by double digits, Hillary wins Indiana by 8, Obama wins Montana, South Dakota, and Oregon while she takes the rest, with a big win in Puerto Rico, and the votes cast in Florida and Michigan are not counted. Sean Oxendine opines at Real Clear Politics:

The black line traces the exact contours of Appalachia, according to the United States Government. You can see the nearly perfect correlation here with Hillary's vote performance. The correlation is scary in some states, particularly Ohio, Georgia (where the Atlanta suburbs provide the only mitigation) and Virginia; in most states it gives a pretty good description of where Obama starts to have a chance Note: TN is all blue, save for the Southwest portion and the greater Nashville area in the center. This is because, although Appalachia stops east of Nashville, you are still very much in hill country until you get to the western third of the state, where Obama at least occasionally has a good showing. BTW, did you know that Northwest TN was Davy Crockett's old district? True story.

Anyway, this map doesn't tell the full extent of the story -- in many of the TN, OH, and VA counties, Hillary was well over 60% of the vote, even reaching 90% in one Virginia county. In other words, even though she hasn't reached 60% of the vote in many states, she's done it in several counties. The question is: Are there states with enough Appalachian counties left to push her across the 60% threshold? I think the map above tells us "perhaps so."

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All told, this gives Hillary around a 100K margin of victory, using Obama's best count system (use caucus estimates, don't use FL or MI). In truth, I think the best system credits FL -- both were on the ballot, neither campaigned, and even though the delegates don't count, the votes were still cast. Under this count, she wins by almost a half million votes -- exactly Gore's popular vote win over Bush.

And therein lies the rub. Are the Democrats, who still feel victimized by 2000, going to go with the person who very narrowly won the bizarre system of delegate allocations? Who won because of Texas' primacaucus, and the refusal to seat FL and MI?

Read the entire detailed analysis and see the illustrations at the link above.

If Hillary does pull out the popular vote, it will be Katie-bar-the-door at the convention.