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Clinton Falters While Obama Cruises

Everything is going Barack Obama's way these days. A new Diageo Hotline national primary poll has Obama way out of front of Clinton:

Obama50%
Clinton38%

This poll has shown a statistical dead heat since December of 2007 so this recent move is significant. The poll also shows that Clinton's negatives have risen while voters are blaming her for unfairly attacking Obama:

In the Diageo/Hotline Poll of 799 registered voters conducted by FD from March 28-31, 2008,Obama's favorability rating is stable among registered voters at 56% (February, 57%) and has risen 7 points among self-identified Democrats (March, 77%; February, 70%). In contrast, Clinton's favorability rating has declined 11% since last month (March, 43%; February, 54%). This decline is driven in part by the 13 point drop in registered voters who self-identify as Democrats that view Clinton favorably (March, 71%; February, 84%).

Another challenge for Hillary Clinton evident in this month's poll is Democratic primary voters' views regarding which of the candidates is attacking the other unfairly. Democratic primary voters are more than twice as likely to say that Hillary Clinton is attacking Obama unfairly, and there is a 29 point difference between those who say Obama has not been attacking unfairly compared to those who say the same for Clinton.

The problem for Hillary now is that a blowout win in Pennsylvania is crucial if she is going to have a prayer of derailing Obama's drive for the nomination, and the only way she can get that kind of victory is to effectively destroy her opponent in the coming weeks. That means she needs to launch a series of nasty, negative and unfair attacks, and I predict she'll do just that about a week before the Pennsylvania contest. The most likely course is for her campaign to begin spreading some kind of vicious lie about Obama's youthful drug use.

Meanwhile, the Michigan Democratic Party has decided there will be no re-vote:

We have concluded that it is not practical to conduct such a primary or caucus.

This effectively denies Clinton a vital opportunity that she desperately needed to close the delegate and popular vote gaps with Obama. Couple this with polls showing Obama gaining in Pennsylvania, Obama doubling her fundraising efforts in March, the steady drip of superdelegates endorsing Obama, and the jaw-dropping revelations in the Clinton's tax returns and you have the picture of a campaign sinking fast with little prospect for recovery.

Better get that fork ready because she's almost done.

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Comments (1)

Larkin, yes, with all the m... (Below threshold)
Steve Crickmore:

Larkin, yes, with all the money the Clintons have made and more to come with the release of their 2007 joint income tax return before April 15th, Hillary crying the poor house in campaign spending, particulary in tv ads, rings a little hollow.

Obama is getting higher poll ratings than his ten frame bowling score. Given the political awareness of most Americans they are more knowledgeable and concerned about his bowling score-37, but Rasmussen Reports, now has Obama with a ten point lead over Clinton, 51 to 41. With Gallup, his lead remains at 5 points. Could he take Pennsylvania? He remains within striking distance, that would certainly make it interesting.




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