January 10, 2008

John Kerry to announce his endorsement of Barack Obama

Two years ago I predicted Kerry to quit the Senate this year. Looks like I'm going to be wrong. From AP-

MYRTLE BEACH, S.C. - Barack Obama has won the presidential endorsement of Sen. John Kerry, the Democrats' 2004 nominee who lost to George W. Bush. Kerry, a senator from Massachusetts, planned to announce his support Thursday at 11 a.m. EST at a rally at the College of Charleston, said a Democrat familiar with Kerry's decision. The 2004 nominee was to argue that Obama can best unite the country and has the potential to create transformational change, the person said.

Kerry lost the South Carolina Democratic primary in 2004 to John Edwards, the former North Carolina senator who now is running third in the 2008 campaign behind Hillary Rodham Clinton and Obama.

Besides any potential help for Obama, Thursday's endorsement was a slap at Edwards, who was Kerry's running mate in the last election.

Yes I think this can be considered a slapdown of Edwards. I hardly find it surprising. The Democratic party in Connecticut(and in other parts of the US) turned against their 2000 VP candidate Joe Lieberman when he ran for re-election in 2006. You could cite these two instances as proof Democrats eat their own.

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"Leave Ron Paul Alone!" (Content warning)!

This impassioned plea comes from another insane Ron Paul supporter, via Ace, who asks:


Can Ron Paul's defenders please justify voting for a man who appears, based on the evidence, to be mentally unstable and haunted by a livable and low-grade, but quite real, case of paranoid schizophrenia?

If Art Bell told you he really had some great ideas about cutting the federal bureaucracy and returning to "constitutional governance," would you guys all flock to him, too?

I don't know about you all, but "not google-eyed batshit crazy" is one of my higher-priority qualifications for a president. Yes, I realize it's not actually explicitly listed as a qualification in the Constitution, but I'm comfortable unconstitutionally imposing this test on a would-be leader nevertheless.


The rest is at the link above, including this reasoned appeal:


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Hillary tells Katie about Edwards and Obama's "buddy system"

Still flush from her once-assumed, then denied, then resumed victory in the New Hampshire Primary, Hillary Clinton spoke with Katie Couric, who used to be a popular morning talk show host but is now doing Nutri-System® commercials or something, I think. Via CBSNews.com:


COURIC: Some observers believe that moment when you got emotional on Monday when your voice cracked and your eyes welled up that that humanized you and made you much more attractive to women voters.

CLINTON: That moment, which obviously I've heard a lot about since, gave people maybe some insight into the fact that I don't see politics as a game. You know, I don't see it as some kind of a traveling entertainment show where, you know, you get up and you perform and you go on to the next venue. You know, for me it is a way of figuring out what we stand for, what our values are, and getting in a position to actually help people.

COURIC: Will you be willing now to reveal more of yourself and be less reserved?

CLINTON: Well, you know, one of my young friends said well, that was like Hillary unplugged. I thought, "OK, I can't sing, I can't play an instrument. But, you know, I will try to let people know enough about me to know that, you know, I don't need to go back and live in the White House. That's not why I'm doing this. I certainly don't need anymore name recognition. And, I mean, I just want to try to convey that we're going to have to make some big decisions in this country." This is the toughest job in the world. I was laughing because you know in that debate, obviously Sen. Edwards and Sen. Obama were kind of in the buddy system on the stage. And I was thinking whoever's up against the Republican nominee in the election debates come the fall is not gonna have a buddy to fall back on. You know, you're all by yourself. When you're president, you're there all by yourself.


Read the rest at the link above. Hmmm . . . she'll be "all by [her]self," eh? Where will Bill be? But I think she made her point. The boys are ganging up on her because neither of them can beat up the girl alone. They're a couple of pretty boys in expensive suits with about as much substance as the lingering fragrance of their cologne . . . Hillary's just too nice to put it that bluntly. ;-)

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January 9, 2008

Is Bill Richardson about to withdraw from the Presidential race?

AP is reporting the New Mexico Governor is about to end his campaign. Haven't we also heard rumors about Fred Thompson, Duncan Hunter and even Hillary dropping that.

MERRIMACK, N.H. - New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson ended his campaign for the presidency Wednesday after twin fourth-place finishes that showed his impressive credentials could not compete with his rivals' star power.

Richardson planned to announce the decision Thursday, according to two people close to the governor with knowledge of the decision. They spoke on a condition of anonymity in advance of the governor's announcement.

The Richardson campaign would not comment on the governor's decision, reached after a meeting with his top advisers Wednesday in New Mexico.

Richardson had one of the most wide-ranging resumes of any candidate ever to run for the presidency, bringing experience from his time in Congress, President Clinton's Cabinet, in the New Mexico statehouse as well as his unique role as a freelance diplomat. As a Hispanic, he added to the unprecedented diversity in the Democratic field that also included a black and a woman.

Some how I think the media has it right this time. Richardson's numbers have been dismal so far?

So who is this registered Democrat supposed to vote for now? Edwards, Obama, or Hillary? I've given all three a Knucklehead award in the past. Kucinich has never gotten one, mostly because I ignore that nut.

Being a registered Democrat, doesn't mean I vote for the Dems in the general election. I voted for Bush twice.(and given him multiple Knucklehead awards too)If I was voting Republican, I wouldn't cast my vote for Rudy, Huckabee, or Paul. As to the other three, Thompson, Romney, McCain, I got misgivings about all of them.

Just tells you, I'm not crazy about anyone running for President this year.

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January 8, 2008

Barack Obama's recycled nostrums

People are treating Barack Obama's generalized appeals to "unity" and "bipartisanship" as if they were something fresh and new. In reality, they are recycled old manure. John J. Pitney, Jr. writes at NRO:


As I explained on NRO nearly a year ago, Obama is echoing what George W. Bush said in the 2000 campaign. In fact, if Obama's speeches were term papers, I'd report him for plagiarism. "Our country has unlimited potential. But our politics is broken -- at least in Washington," Bush said in California on October 30, 2000. "You know what's wrong, Washington is obsessed with scoring points, not solving problems." In another California swing a month earlier, Bush said: "I'm going to reject the ugly politics of the past, where people felt like they could get ahead by tearing down their opponents."

One could argue that Bush was merely spouting political pap -- but that's the point. The "unity" message has been old for a long time. Here's another example:"I saw many signs in this campaign. Some of them were not friendly. Some were very friendly. But the one that touched me the most was -- a teenager held up the sign `bring us together.' And that will be the great objective of this administration, at the outset, to bring the American people together."

That was Richard Nixon, after his election in 1968.

Obama supporters would shriek at these comparisons, contending that their man follows through on his words by shunning personal attacks. That's only partially true. Like so many politicians before him, he speaks lofty prose while leaving the wet work to underlings. Eisenhower had Nixon, who later had Agnew. Obama has David Axelrod, among others.


Read it all at the link above. Bush and Nixon, at least, had some specific ideas (not all of which were good) and the background of experience to prepare them for office. Obama does very well for an empty suit, though.

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January 7, 2008

Registered Democrat quits WV GOP State Senate race

Seems there was a little mistake made when Mr. Moltere registered to vote.

HARPERS FERRY, W.Va. - A GOP candidate for West Virginia's 16th District Senate race is withdrawing from the election because he mistakenly registered as a Democrat.

Ronald Jean Moltere, 64, of Harpers Ferry recently discovered the mistake he made 10 years ago. He said he never knew he had checked Democrat instead of Republican because he voted only in general elections, not the primaries.

"It was devastating," Moltere said. "I felt like I was shot through the heart."

Moltere submitted his pre-candidacy registration as a Republican in the race to replace state Sen. John Yoder. He cannot run for office if he switches parties within 60 days before the official filing period, which begins Monday and ends Jan. 26.

Moltere said he thought about running for the Senate anyway as a Democrat but said he couldn't do that if he were "to be honest with myself and my convictions."

The local Democratic party may not have wanted to back him either. Maybe Mr. Moltere would consider coming here to Florida. Here state house candidates forget to sign their papers when filing to run for office.

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Romney preparing for 2nd in NH

After leading in the polls of New Hampshire Republicans for virtually all of 2007, Mitt Romney's campaign is now laying the groundwork for an expected second-place finish, report Jonathan Martin and Jim VandeHei for The Politico:


Mitt Romney, a dominant favorite in New Hampshire just weeks ago, said Sunday that a "close second" to Arizona Sen. John McCain would be a significant feat on Tuesday.

The almost frantic downsizing of expectations for the former Massachusetts governor came as the candidate and his staff are publicly and privately preparing to explain away what would be a disheartening loss and shift to a last-ditch strategy predicated on his ability to outlast and outspend his rivals, according to sources inside the campaign.


Read the whole story at the link above. Romney has spent more in New Hampshire than all other Republicans combined, and was supposed to have a built-in "home field" advantage from having served as Governor of neighboring Massachusetts. Now he has to plan on how to survive a loss to John McCain there on the heels of another loss to Mike Huckabee in Iowa.

The "early-state strategy" Romney built his campaign around has completely imploded, and now he must contemplate a long war of attrition, hoping he can outlast the less well-financed candidates. Unfortunately for him, his donor list will shrink considerably if he loses a second time in a row in another state he was favored to win.

New Hampshire is still a "must-win" state for McCain, but the momentum is all on the Senator's side now.

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Bob Shrum on what ails Hillary Clinton's campaign

The political consultant puts in his two bits today at The New York Daily News.

If (although I strongly suspect the right word is "when") Hillary Clinton loses tomorrow's New Hampshire primary, there will be a few proto-obituaries for her campaign and many more stories about how it will be "shaken up" or "relaunched." Scapegoats will be found and exiled: Mark Penn, the pollster and strategist, foremost among them. After all, the candidate can't very well dispense with the überstrategist who also happens to be her husband and who was fully complicit in designing and driving her message.

The flaw wasn't just the attempt to go back to the future, to the 1990s, but that the Clintons picked the wrong year in that decade. Instead of 1992, when Bill was the personification of change, their model was 1996. So Hillary ran as a pseudo-incumbent, with a selection of bite-size proposals and an abundance of caution and transparent calculation

I personally think the country is tired of the Bushs and Clintons and wants someone else to be President.(Mark my words if Hillary doesn't get the nomination and a Democrat wins the white house in 2008, she'll leave the Senate in 2012. I always felt the job was meant to be a stepping stone to a future Presidential run. With her hopes dashed, there is little reason to stay in the Senate.)That's my analysis of what ails the Hillary campaign right now, if I'm right, she won't be the nominee. Oddly I predicted her to win just a week ago. I changed my tune fast after Iowa.

Here are some of Shrum's suggestions to fix the Clinton bid for the White House.

Clinton's massive mistake - and the final chance to fix it Let Hillary be Hillary. Throw away the product packaging - those poll-tested small-bites of policy - and set out a big case about what she wants to do in the next four years, not what she has done for the past 35.
This coming from someone who is 0 for 8 backing Presidential hopefuls. Maybe Hillary should do the reverse of what Shrum is suggesting. What's the harm?

Hat tip- James Joyner at OTB

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Republican Sunday debate on Fox

The second Republican debate in as many days was hosted Sunday by Fox News, featuring the top five contenders. Ron Paul was not invited to participate.

I commented on Saturday's debates in both parties over at Politics. This one was similar in format, with more actual "debate" and discussion between the candidates than the typical joint press conference format which has bored us to death through most of the campaign thus far. Chris Wallace, though, is himself, and was far more controlling and aggressive as moderator than ABC's Charles Gibson the day before. I vote for Gibson's approach.

As I saw it:

Fred Thompson ~ continued his strong performance from Saturday. Some people dislike his speaking style, but his remarks were substantive and on point. This is the man many conservatives expected.

Mitt Romney ~ made a dramatic turnaround from Saturday. He was good on all levels - perhaps even better than his showing in early debates which won wide accolades.

John McCain ~ smoothed some of the rougher edges from Saturday. He, too, can learn on the fly.

Rudy Giuliani ~ also improved from the day before, if only marginally. He has a huge problem in that his later-state strategy has made him almost irrelevant to the coverage of the early states, but he did remind Republicans what he brings to the table.

Mike Huckabee ~ has to be disappointed with his performance. The format and dynamics of this debate ran counter to his preferred style of espousing general themes, and he seemed uncomfortable with the back-and-forth.


Winners and losers: I score Thompson and Romney as the winners. Thompson is taking what may be the last opportunity to jump start his campaign, and Romney showed the polish and command of issues which are his prime attributes. McCain and Giuliani both improved their performance from the previous day's event, too, though. Huckabee loses by virtue of his failure to improve on what was his weakest debate showing to date.

The relative significance of Thompson's and Huckabee's stands here won't show up Tuesday, of course. Both look to South Carolina as the next major test. It will be important for Huckabee's chances, and critical for Thompson's.

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Edwards: "The Clinton campaign has no conscience"

John Edwards is learning, according to The Politico's Ben Smith:


Edwards responded sharply to a Clinton aide's criticism today, intensifying a back-and-forth that began at last night's debate, after Clinton said Nataline Sarkisyan could be alive if the patients bill of rights, which he'd boasted of championing, had passed.

"The Clinton campaign has no conscience," Edwards said, after Clinton spokesman Jay Carson said Edwards does no more than "read articles about people who need help and talk about them."


Read the rest at the link above. Ah, Johnny, we've been telling you this for years now . . . I guess the fog of hairspray must have momentarily lifted, eh?

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January 6, 2008

Romney spreading rumors?

The rumors that Fred Thompson was about to withdraw and endorse McCain were spread by Romney people, according to Robert Novak:


Published reports that Fred Thompson soon will withdraw from the Republican presidential contest and endorse Sen. John McCain have been traced in part to Mitt Romney's campaign, trying to stir up strife between McCain and Thompson.


Read it all at the above link. Romney is a logical target, since his campaign has been flooding the e-waves with attacks on everybody else. This makes little sense, though. If Thompson's support, weak as it is, comes from potential McCain backers, it would not be in Romney's interests to promote this idea. It only makes McCain look stronger.

I respect Novak's inside connections, but on something this direct, he needs a named source.

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Democratic debate summary

As in the preceding post, congratulations to ABC on the best debate format of the cycle. Now, if they could get some debaters . . .

My impressions of the Democratic debate:


Barack Obama ~ Clearly the winner. He stayed above the fray, acting statesmanlike without being overly condescending. He's playing to his winning themes and spouting his vague but positive generalities effectively. Obama may be the perfect proof that, to be a serious contender for the Presidency in modern politics, one need not BE a leader, but only appear leader-like.

Hillary Clinton ~ She came across as tough and combative, but perhaps also a little scary. You just knew that at several points Bill was backstage flinching, ready to duck a flying lamp. Still, in a debate lacking real substance, she supplied almost all of it.

John Edwards ~ A surprising strategy of ignoring Obama and attacking Hillary didn't help him. Obama is the guy he needed to weaken if he aspires to be the "NOT Hillary" alternative. It's almost as if he is playing to be Obama's Veep choice, which will never happen. The anti-corporate rhetoric is tired old '60s radical shtick, but playing on the fears of the ignorant and the resentment of the underachievers is proven liberal Democratic boilerplate. We won't have to listen to his ranting much longer, I expect.

Bill Richardson ~ In 2003, I declared him the most formidable Democratic candidate, and I still think he might have been - then, before tacking left early in this cycle and falling off the edge of the earth. He's deteriorating before our eyes. It's almost as if he felt the need to channel the absent Kucinich.


The verdict: Obama wins, Hillary breaks even, and Edwards and Richardson confirm their irrelevancy. If Obama can win NH, he will win South Carolina, too, and Hillary's chances will be starkly diminished. She better hope few NH voters were watching. ADDED: I should have noted that all the Democrats looked worn out, probably from the nonstop campaigning. Edwards did seem to show the most energy, but the impression was one of residual anger, not confident enthusiasm.

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Republican debate summary

I have to say the ABC format is the best yet. They could have dispensed with the preview video snippets entirely, though, as a total waste of time. Gibson was the best moderator I've seen this cycle - he let the candidates drive the debate for the most part.

My impressions of the candidates' performances:


Thompson ~ Another good showing. It probably won't help him in New Hampshire, where he hasn't campaigned, but might keep him in the mix for South Carolina and beyond if conservatives start looking around again. He should have got into the race last Memorial Day; he might be in a much stronger position now.

McCain ~ Not up to his recent standards, but didn't hurt himself. With his momentum in NH, that may be enough to win. A couple of sharp slaps at Romney connected, but otherwise just adequate. He was hurt on the immigration amnesty issue, but I expect everyone who rules him out on that is already against him, so he may not lose much support.

Romney ~ On his answers, probably as good as anyone on specifics, and emphasized his corporate track record (as he should) more than he has been. But his reaction to the barbs from the rest seemed insufficient to me. He didn't hurt himself, but did nothing to reverse the momentum of the race.

Giuliani ~ Likewise, he didn't hurt himself, and was solid throughout. I think he needed to make more noise, though. His later-state strategy has cost him coverage for the last month or so, and he could have grabbed some of the spotlight back with a stronger showing.

Huckabee ~ He has always done well in the debates, but seemed a bit more on edge tonight. Perhaps the pressure of winning Iowa led him to try to steer a safer course. He was shaky on defending his "bunker mentality" criticism of Bush, but otherwise neither won nor lost support.

Paul ~ Did he really answer the question on health care costs by saying our "warmongering" prevented us from "spending those resources at home"? Not exactly orthodox Libertarianism . . . and the brilliant observation that (in time of war and instability in oil producing countries, brewing crises on Iranian nukes and increasing arming and belligerence from Russia and China, and rising economic uncertainty) oil and gold prices have risen in tandem. My dog understands that much. Paul's a carnival geek. It won't gain or lose support, though.


Who won and lost? Thompson helped his cause the most, I think, so give him the win - whatever it may be worth to him now. McCain, Huckabee, Giuliani, and Paul broke even. Romney didn't so much "hurt" himself, but he blew the chance to regain some momentum. The guy is a problem-solver, a turnaround artist, by all accounts a natural leader, but he has underperformed in this campaign for the last two months.

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January 5, 2008

Anyone notice Romney is winning in Wyoming?

What if they had a caucus and hardly anyone noticed? From the Casper Star-Tribune-

Mitt Romney grabbed the early lead in Wyoming's Republican caucuses today as the state had its brief moment in the political spotlight sandwiched between attention-getting contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.

By 2 p.m., the Associated Press had reported that Mitt Romney had won the Wyoming caucuses, though there were still four delegates up for grabs.

The former Massachusetts governor gained the state's first six delegates. They came from Laramie, Albany, Teton, Sweetwater, Goshen and Uinta counties. U.S. Rep. Duncan Hunter of California, considered a long shot for the Republican nomination, picked up one delegate from Goshen County, after a straw poll from delegates in that county indicated the county would choose Romney.

Romney was expected to do well in the western part of the state where more members of his Mormon faith reside.

Coming two days after the Iowa caucuses and three days before the New Hampshire primary, the early date of the Wyoming GOP county conventions was intended to draw candidates' attention to the state, but it has had only modest results.

I blogged about Wyoming about a month ago. The Presidential candidates went where the media was reporting, Iowa and New Hampshire rather than Casper and Cody. Such a shame, I rather spend my winter in Wyoming if I had a choice of the three.

The silly thing is, GOP delegates are being selected as I type, whereas in Iowa it was nothing more than a straw poll. Which got all the media coverage and 99.5% of the attention from the candidates? We have an upside down system in this country so far as picking Presidents comes.

Hat tip- Dr. Taylor at Poliblog

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January 3, 2008

Rudy Giuliani discusses possible Cabinet choices and Vice-President

Honestly I don't think Rudy will have to spend much time thinking about these matters come February. From AP-

Giuliani pivoted from a question about potential picks for secretary of state to this: "Let me answer with the question of what you would look for in a vice president first -- again without any presumption that I'm going to be the nominee."

In an answer that mentioned Cheney more than once, Giuliani said, "A vice president has to be a partner in the administration. The vice president has to know everything that's going on, just in case the vice president has to step in at a moment's notice," he said. He added that during a conversation with Cheney on Sept. 11, 2001, he felt the vice president "had a sense that he knew what he was doing."

Following his train of thought to cabinet picks, Giuliani left the door open in his administration for rivals like McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and others currently battling him for the Republican nomination.

Why not ask Dick Cheney to stay on as VP? The 22 amendment only applies to the President. Accept no imitations, bring back Cheney!

Just don't let Cheney go quail hunting is all I say.

Hat tip- James Joyner at OTB

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Huckabee scores on Leno

On the eve of the Iowa Caucuses, Mike Huckabee decided to leave the state to appear on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno, taped in Burbank, California. The political press questioned this move in derisive chorus, finishing their transition from favorable to Huckabee to outrightly hostile in near-record time. Huckabee gets the last laugh, though, as he turned in the best performance of any candidate yet on the late night talk shows.

The former Arkansas Governor was relaxed and funny in the soft banter with Leno, which was very well received by the studio (and, presumably, the home) audience. The political portion of the interview was very brief, to Leno's credit - Letterman often tries to assume the persona of a serious reporter when questioning candidates, and comes off looking ridiculous - but Huckabee was cheered for embracing bipartisanship, and for his stock remark that an American entrepreneur trying to bring a new product or idea to market faces more competition from his own government than from business rivals (which he uses to defend the Flat Tax, when in fact it applies more directly to regulatory excess than the income tax system).

Mike Huckabee certainly didn't hurt his chances with this appearance. Polls show that nearly half of the likely Iowa caucus attendees say they could change their minds, and "likability" has been a key ingredient for Americans deciding on a President (as evidenced in 1952, 1960, 1980, and 2000). He may not have been able to win many votes on policy - there being little opportunity in the setting - but he certainly may have been able to convince potential caucus-goers to discount the attacks against him.

Huckabee's campaign has been a bit frazzled by the scrutiny recently, and he needed a good performance tonight. He delivered.

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January 2, 2008

Novak predicts: Obama, Romney win Iowa; Hillary 3rd

Robert Novak and Timothy P. Carney are issuing predictions for the Iowa Caucuses at Human Events. Read the whole column at the preceding link; to summarize: they predict Obama wins the Democratic side, followed by Edwards and Clinton. For the Republicans, they call Romney over Huckabee, with Thompson and McCain far behind.

FWIW.

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January 1, 2008

Des Moines Register poll shows Obama, Huckabee leading

The Des Moines Register has released their latest poll before Thursday's caucuses. Their samples of 800 likely caucus-goers in each party is the largest I've seen for the state. (Full results and report at the preceding link).

On the Democratic side, the poll shows Barack Obama moving to a significant lead with 32% over Hillary Clinton's 25% and John Edwards with 24%. No other candidate breaks into double digits. The Real Clear Politics average of recent polls (including DMR's) still shows Hillary with a tiny lead over both Obama and Edwards at 28.0 - 26.4 - 26.3, a statistical dead heat.

For the Republicans, DMR finds Mike Huckabee with a similar lead over Mitt Romney, 32% - 26%, with John McCain moving into third at 13%. RCP shows a much narrower contest in their average, Huckabee holding a 28.3 - 27.7 lead over Romney, McCain still in third at 12.0.

The poll was taken December 27-30, so news of the Bhutto assassination should be factored into respondents' choices. This is significant for both Obama and Huckabee, as both men faced questions about their lack of foreign policy experience and acumen which many pundits supposed would be underlined by the upheaval in the world's only Muslim nation with nuclear weapons. Those who noted that Iowans typically care less about foreign affairs than the nation as a whole find their views confirmed in the poll results, where neither man was apparently harmed in the wake of the unsettling news.

One Iowan laughs at the poll, though: he says the state has been so inundated with politicians and pollsters for so long this cycle that fewer people will answer their phones any more. This could possibly affect the validity of the sample. We will know soon enough.

Other factors may come into play, too. The weather is expected to improve a bit for Thursday, with mostly clear skies and temperatures in 20s (Tuesday and Wednesday will see lows near 0 and highs in the teens). No significant precipitation is expected. This will tend to help Obama and Huckabee, who lead their respective parties in support by "first-time caucusers" who might be discouraged by worse conditions.

Democrats will face challenges of their own. Republicans treat their caucuses as a non-binding primary of sorts, with a single secret ballot, so they can get in and out relatively quickly. The GOP will select actual voting delegates to the National Convention later at a state convention. Democrats must plan on as much as several hours of caucusing. For many men, this will conflict with the Virginia Tech - Kansas Orange Bowl game that night. Whether a significant number will stay home to watch it can't be foreseen, but represents more of a danger to Obama, whose supporters tend to be younger. Clinton might be helped, because she holds the lead among women caucus-goers.

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December 30, 2007

More "Huck-ups"

It's not been a good week for Mike Huckabee on foreign policy. First, his article in Foreign Affairs raised eyebrows in Republican circles. Then, after the assassination of Benizar Bhutto in Pakistan, he first offered "apologies" when he meant "sympathies," a most unfortunate choice of words given the predisposition of Pakistanis and Muslims worldwide (not to even mention Ron Paul supporters) to believe anti-American conspiracy theories. He also complained about "martial law," although it had been lifted two weeks previously, and mentioned Bhutto had been "running for President," although she actually was running for a seat in Parliament with the hope of being named Prime Minister (Musharraf is the President of Pakistan).

Whew! That's plenty of gaffes in a short time, but Huckabee wasn't done. He claimed former UN Ambassador John Bolton as a foreign policy adviser - which Bolton immediately denied, saying they had never even spoken. Now he's done the same with former Reagan National Security Adviser Richard Allen, reports Lisa Lerer at The Politico:


Reached via e-mail, Allen said an intermediary asked him to speak with Huckabee, but he hadn't yet agreed. "I'm gradually getting older, but am fully capable of recalling with whom I have spoken," said the former Nixon and Reagan foreign policy campaign adviser.


The whole story is at the link above. Someone in the Huckabee campaign needs to stop this nonsense. Stuff a sock in his mouth or something, puh-leeze!

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Politics 201 - A Refresher

Friday afternoon, I was listening to Hugh Hewitt talk with Mike Gallagher, and they briefly discussed negative campaigning. I was surprised to hear Hugh claim that citing supposed deficiencies in your opponents' positions was somehow not negative campaigning to him. Strange, if an educated Law Professor in LA can miss that one, it's clear that we need to go over the basics.

There are four basic types of campaigning; Informational, Advocational, Negative, and Dirty. Most candidates will use something from all four types during a campaign, especially national campaigns which last more than a month or two.

Informational campaigning happens when a candidate is trying to announce to the public who they are and what they stand for. The chief goals are to increase name recognition and create a unique position in the voter's mind for the candidate;

Advocational campaigning happens when a candidate releases advertising and other media designed to persuade the public to vote for him or her. Advocational campaigning is different from informational campaigning in that advocational campaigning attempts to achieve specific gains in support, which is generally represented by poll response and fundraising results. However, advocational campaigning can also lay the groundwork for later strategy, such as the 'Super Tuesday' primaries;

Negative campaigning is the flip side of advocational campaigning. Where advocational campaigning gives reasons why a voter should support a certain candidate, negative campaigning gives reasons why a voter should not support a certain opponent. Any advertisement or statement which discusses weaknesses or flaws in an opponent is negative campaigning;

Dirty campaigning is behavior which is generally considered unethical in attempts to influence an election. Examples of dirty campaigning are sadly abundant, ranging from bribery, scare tactics, lying about beliefs and behavior, especially in an attack on a political opponent, to attempts to manipulate conditions to prevent losing.

It should be noted that the lines between these categories can sometimes be indistinct. For instance, Kerry supporters considered the ads by Swift Boat veterans in the 2004 campaign to be dirty campaigning, because they felt the charges were false, while Bush supporters felt the ads were negative campaigning but legitimate, because the claims were accurate. Other times the lines are quite clear; LBJ's 'Daisy' ad in 1964 for example, which implied that electing Barry Goldwater to the White House could result in Nuclear War, was clearly dirty in character.

The reasons for these different categories of campaigning are structural and conditional. The front-runner in a political race, for example, enjoys name recognition and a generally positive image, and so would be reluctant to use negative campaigning, and would be very likely to forbid dirty campaigning, as these types could damage the candidate's public perception. Candidates behind the leader or in a tight race, however, would be far more tempted to use negative campaigning, as it is necessary to change the public's preference for the front-runner in order for another candidate to take the lead. All modern political candidates decry dirty campaigning, yet the two most lopsided Presidential elections (1964, 1972) both incorporated dirty campaigning, which implies that carefully-applied dirty tricks can be very successful.


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